Nickel Sulphate Costs Continue to Strengthen, High-Grade NPI Prices May Stabilize and Rebound [SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Notes]

1.16Nickel Morning Meeting Summary

Nickel Sulphate:

On January 15, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,466 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate at 26,150-26,970 yuan/mt, and the average price increased compared to the previous day.

Cost side, LME nickel prices slightly rebounded today to $15,870/mt (Ni contained), with spot cost support continuing to strengthen. Currently, profits for producing nickel sulphate from high-grade nickel matte and intermediate products are both inverted. Demand side, most precursor plants have basically completed nickel salt restocking for January, with only a small portion still requiring restocking. Market inquiry activity remains weak. Supply side, nickel salt plants are facing critically low finished product inventories, leading to tight supply. Overall, under the pattern of tight supply and rising costs, prices are expected to have room for further increases.

NPI:

On January 15, SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 935.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 2 yuan/mtu compared to the previous working day. Supply side, domestically, high-grade NPI prices fluctuated downward, with weak production momentum among domestic smelters, and production is expected to decline. In Indonesia, with the release of some new capacity and additional output from high-grade nickel matte switching to NPI production, high-grade NPI production is expected to slightly increase. Demand side, current stainless steel prices have stabilized and rebounded, with stainless steel mill profits recovering. The expected production cuts for this month are likely to be less than previously anticipated, and the economic advantage of high-grade NPI over stainless steel scrap has expanded, leading to an increased usage ratio compared to last month. Circulating resources in the market have tightened due to an increased proportion of long-term contracts with steel mills. Today's market transaction prices have improved compared to the previous period, and high-grade NPI prices are likely to stabilize and rebound in the short term.

Stainless Steel:

On January 15, electronic trading remained stable, and spot prices continued to rise. Although downstream demand remains at a low level, it has exceeded market expectations for the off-season. As the holiday approaches, market sentiment is sluggish, and transactions are weak. Market inventories are steadily and slightly destocking, with most of the market entering the holiday around the 23rd, and some already in holiday mode. 304 cold-rolled in Wuxi was quoted at 12,900-13,200 yuan/mt, 304 HRC in Wuxi at 12,400-12,600 yuan/mt, 316L cold-rolled in Wuxi at 23,600-23,800 yuan/mt, 201J1 cold-rolled in Wuxi at 7,600-7,750 yuan/mt, and 430 cold-rolled in Wuxi at 7,150-7,450 yuan/mt. At 10:30 a.m., the SHFE SS2503 contract price was 13,195 yuan/mt, with Wuxi stainless steel spot premiums at -125 to -175 yuan/mt (spot trimmed edge = rough edge + 170 yuan/mt).