Raw Material Low-Sulphur Petroleum Coke Broadly Increased; Industry Supply Surplus Makes It Difficult for Finished Product Prices to Rise [SMM Analysis]

SMM, January 13:

This month, mainstream prices of cathode carbon blocks for aluminum remained largely stable, with the market focusing on fulfilling orders and smooth transactions. Mainstream quotations for 30% graphite content were 7,000-8,000 yuan/mt, for 50% graphite content were 8,000-9,000 yuan/mt, and for fully graphitised products were 14,000-16,000 yuan/mt.

Cost side: Low-sulphur calcined coke: As of January 10, SMM's average spot price for low-sulphur calcined petroleum coke was 4,787.5 yuan/mt, up 13.31% MoM. This increase was mainly attributed to strong order performance in the anode material market, prompting downstream anode plants to actively stockpile. With rising demand, the price of low-sulphur petroleum coke continued to climb, driving the sustained increase in low-sulphur calcined coke prices. Additionally, relatively tight market resources further supported the upward trend in low-sulphur petroleum coke prices.

Coal tar pitch: As of January 10, SMM's average price for coal tar pitch was 3,590 yuan/mt, down 7.47% MoM. Recently, raw material coal tar prices rebounded slightly, providing moderate cost-side support for coal tar pitch. Although operating rates of deep-processing enterprises slightly declined, the overall supply of coal tar pitch remained sufficient. Therefore, SMM expects coal tar pitch prices to undergo slight adjustments in the short term.

In terms of supply, cathode carbon block supply slightly declined this month. Environmental protection-related controls in the main production area of Shanxi were relatively lenient, and production was not affected. However, in Henan, stricter environmental controls led to a slight decline in operating rates. On the demand side, recent bidding activities by aluminum enterprises improved. According to feedback from enterprises, orders were being negotiated in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Guizhou, and Shaanxi, reflecting good demand performance.

Overall, due to the continuous increase in prices of raw materials such as low-sulphur petroleum coke and calcined petroleum coke, enterprises faced significant cost-side pressure. While the overall supply of cathode carbon blocks remained sufficient and downstream demand performed well, intense cut-throat competition among enterprises limited the upward momentum for finished product prices. SMM expects cathode carbon block prices to remain largely stable in the short term.