[SMM Anti-Dumping Analysis] Some Thoughts on Indonesia's Fourth Affirmative Final Ruling on Anti-Dumping of Chinese HRC

•  Background

On December 31, 2024, the Indonesian Ministry of Finance issued Announcement No. PMK103, continuing to impose anti-dumping duties on non-alloy iron or steel hot-rolled coils (Indonesian: CANAI LANTAIAN DARI BESI ATAU BAJA BUKAN PADUAN) with a width of not less than 600 mm originating from mainland China, India, Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Taiwan, China, and Thailand. The tax rate for mainland China remains unchanged at 0% and 20%. The measures will take effect on January 15, 2025, and will be valid for five years until January 14, 2030. The Indonesian tariff codes for the products involved are 7208.10.00, 7208.25.00, 7208.26.00, 7208.27.11, 7208.27.19, 7208.27.91, 7208.27.99, 7208.36.00, 7208.37.00, 7208.38.00, 7208.39.10, 7208.39.20, 7208.39.30, 7208.39.40, 7208.39.90, ex7208.90.10, ex7208.90.20, and ex7208.90.90.

Looking back over the years, as early as 2006, Indonesia initiated an anti-dumping investigation on Chinese HRC and made a final anti-dumping ruling on February 28, 2008, imposing anti-dumping duties of 0%-20% on the products involved. Subsequently, Indonesia launched two sunset review investigations on the anti-dumping measures for Chinese products, extending the anti-dumping duty period accordingly. The anti-dumping duties have been imposed for nearly 17 years, with detailed tax rates shown in the table below.

Table 1 - Indonesia's Final Sunset Review Anti-Dumping Duty Table on Chinese HRC

• HRC Exports to Indonesia Increased in Total and Volume, But the Share Remains Below 2%!

Figure 1 - Total Export Volume and YoY Data of Chinese Products Involved, 2017-2024 (as of November)

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, before 2020, the export volume of the products involved from China was not high, with annual exports below 1 million mt. After 2020, the export volume of the products involved from China surged. In 2021, the data slightly pulled back, but after 2022, it returned to its peak. As of November this year, the export volume has reached 16.4973 million mt, up 38.69% YoY (2023's export volume for the same period was 11.8947 million mt), already surpassing last year's total!Figure 2 - Total Export Volume and YoY Data of Chinese Products Involved, 2017-2024 (as of November)

In 2017, Indonesia initiated the second sunset review investigation on Chinese products involved. For the following four years, the export volume of the products involved to Indonesia remained low, below 10,000 mt, but later increased. Based on data from the first 11 months of this year, China exported 320,700 mt of HRC to Vietnam, up approximately 20.38% YoY (2023's export volume for the same period was 266,400 mt). This year, China's total export volume of the products involved to Indonesia has already surpassed last year's!

China's HRC Exports to Indonesia Account for Less Than 2%, Anti-Dumping Impact Is NegligibleTable 2 - Proportion of Export Volume of Products Involved to Indonesia in China's Total Export Volume, 2019-2024 (as of November)

• Regarding the proportion of the total export volume of the products involved to Vietnam in China's total export volume, the overall proportion fluctuated between 0%-3%. In 2020, this proportion dropped to 0.09%, with minimal impact, but later increased. As of November 2024, this figure has grown more than 200 times from the lowest value. However, the total export volume of the products involved in China has also seen a significant increase, and the overall proportion remains relatively small.

In summary, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total export volume of HRC from China to Indonesia in 2024 was only 320,700 mt, accounting for 1.94% of China's total export volume of cold-rolled carbon steel coils. In terms of China's HRC export rankings, Indonesia has dropped from 9th to 14th place! Therefore,

although the anti-dumping duties are extended, they have no substantial impact on the total export volume of domestic HRC. However, considering that China's steel products are increasingly competitive in the global market, infringing on the interests of steel producers in other countries, some countries believe that Chinese steel products are sold in the international market at prices below normal value, constituting dumping behavior, and have thus initiated anti-dumping investigations. This year, among the top five countries for HRC exports, two have launched anti-dumping investigations/final rulings on Chinese products involved. As China's steel products flood into overseas markets, new trade frictions are inevitable. Therefore, increasing the proportion of high-end product exports is imperative!

 SMM will closely monitor the progress and impact of overseas anti-dumping investigations on steel products. Stay tuned for related reports. For more information, follow the SMM official account!