[SMM Hot Topic] Overseas Steel Investment Projects in Full Swing: How Will Capacity Expansion Affect the Global Flow of Iron Ore Grades?

◾ Guinea commits to exporting the first batch of iron ore from the Simandou project to the global market by the end of 2025. Currently, the construction progress of the Simandou project has exceeded 50%. Global attention is focused on Simandou iron ore, anticipating the first batch of iron ore exports before the end of this year.

◾ However, what other iron ore resources around Simandou are worth anticipating?

◾ In fact, as early as March last year, the first shipment of Guinean ore carried by SUMEC successfully arrived at Lianyungang. According to SMM, the ore shipped back to China in 2024 was raw ore with an iron grade of around 47-48%. A total of three shipments, approximately 160,000 mt, were delivered throughout the year. This ore is associated with bauxite, resulting in high aluminum content but low sulfur and phosphorus content.

◾ Additionally, due to the high cost of raw ore and poor market conditions, the coarse ore shipped back last year was mainly processed into concentrates through beneficiation plants before being sold. The grade of these concentrates can reach around 62%. This year, iron ore concentrates are planned to be transported back to China. However, as the beneficiation plant equipment in Guinea was only commissioned in October last year, the shipment of iron ore concentrates this year may be delayed.

◾ Guinea has abundant iron ore resources with high grades (over 45%), low development levels, and predominantly open-pit mines, making them easy to extract. The proven iron ore resources mainly include Simandou, Zogota, Nimba, and Kalia mining areas. With global investment and mining companies accelerating development, the gradual release of capacity in the coming years is expected to reshape the global iron ore market landscape.

The following outlines the development progress of local iron ore resources in Guinea.

1. Yomboyeli, Guinea's Only Operating Iron Ore Mine

◾ Yomboyeli (formerly known as Forecariah) is a small mine located in the Kindia region of Guinea. The mine primarily produces bauxite, with associated iron ore. Its iron ore products include DSO and fines. Due to its proximity to ports, exports are relatively convenient. However, due to market conditions and operational issues, the mine's production and sales are often intermittent.

Source: Public channels; SMM

2. Kon Kweni Iron Ore, Bringing 210 Million mt of High-Grade Iron Ore

◾ The Nimba iron ore deposit is sufficiently rich, and its development is currently led by two main companies: Ivanhoe Atlantic and NDC.

◾ Background: Ivanhoe Atlantic benefits from a bilateral implementation agreement approved by the governments of Liberia and Guinea in 2021, allowing iron ore mined in Guinea to be transported through Liberia. With the approval of the Mining Convention and mining licenses, Ivanhoe Atlantic is completing all necessary approvals and will begin construction in 2025.

◾ Progress: In May 2024, Ivanhoe Atlantic received approval for the environmental and social impact assessment process for the first phase of development from Guinea's Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development. Currently, the company is drafting the development plan and timetable for the Nimba iron ore project, with a final investment decision expected in Q1 2025. During the initial phase of iron ore mining, annual production is expected to be around 2-5 million mt, with plans to expand annual production to 30 million mt within 5-7 years. Over the next 15-25 years, approximately 450 million mt of iron ore is expected to be mined.

Note: SMFG is a subsidiary of Ivanhoe Atlantic. Ivanhoe Atlantic's major shareholder is I-Pulse Inc., a US company founded and chaired by Mr. Robert Friedland.

Source: Ivanhoe Atlantic; SMM

3. NDC Participates in Nimba Iron Ore Development,

Expected to Contribute 3 Million mt of DSO Annually

◾ Due to the rich iron ore resources in the Nimba region, in addition to Ivanhoe Atlantic, another iron ore project led by Nimba Development Company (NDC) is also under development. This project was proposed earlier and approved in 2012, but it has not yet been officially put into production.

◾ In 2022, NDC, a company focused on West African resource development, took control of SDN (Société de Développement Nimba), formerly Zali Mining and previously West African Exploration. According to NDC, once developed, this project will export through Liberian ports. The project is located only 26 km from Liberia's existing Tokadeh railway and 800 km from the capital, Conakry.

◾ Additionally, SMFG and Ivanhoe Liberia have clarified that they have no connection with NDC. NDC is reportedly seeking to develop a small satellite deposit in the southeastern lowlands of the Nimba mountain range, with no association between the two parties.

Note: NDC is a UK-registered company with a management team experienced in international mining. Its shareholders include companies from Guinea and other international entities.

Source: NDC; SMM; Public channels

4. Niron Metals Continues Developing Zogota Iron Ore

◾ Near Simandou's northern blocks 1 and 2, there is a small mining area called Zogota, located in Kobela County in southern Guinea. Historically, Vale and BSGR developed it, but it was shelved for years due to legal disputes. The project is now being redeveloped by Niron Metals.

Note: Niron Metals is a UK-based private investment company affiliated with BSGR.

Source: Niron Metals; SMM; Public channels

5. Kalia Iron Ore Development Taken Over by Australia's Stella Vista

◾ The Kalia deposit has a resource volume of 6.16 billion mt of magnetite. The magnetite concentrate produced has a grade of over 67%, making it suitable for pellets and direct reduced iron. With the drive for low-carbon metallurgy in the future, the product has a broad market. The project also includes a previously identified but unexplored laterite nickel deposit, which overlays the iron ore deposit.

◾ Before 2022, Kalia iron ore was owned by Bellzone Mining, which invested over $350 million to upgrade resources, increasing the project's resource volume from 240 million mt to 374 million mt in 2010 and over 600 million mt in 2011.

◾ In 2022, Kalia iron ore's ownership primarily transferred to Stella Vista. According to the latest updates, the project adopts open-pit mining with an annual production of 7 million mt. The initial product is coarse ore with a grade of 58-60%, and later beneficiation will produce concentrates with a grade of 67-68%, with annual production reaching 10 million mt or more.

◾ Additionally, as the Kalia project is about 350 km from Guinea's coast, a railway to the export port is also planned. Previously, China International Fund Limited and Bellzone signed a binding memorandum of understanding to fund infrastructure for the Kalia project, including a 286 km railway and port facilities, granting the company 100% offtake rights for the project's output. However, with Stella Vista's new acquisition, infrastructure and future offtake arrangements may change.

Note: Stella Vista is an Australian private company under Millennium Panorama Group (MPGL), led by executives from FMG, Sirius Minerals, Bowen Coking Coal, and Coal of Africa.

Source: Stella Vista; SMM; Public channels

6. Arrow Minerals Partners with Baosteel to Accelerate Development of Simandou North Iron Ore Project

◾ In addition to the well-known Simandou blocks 1, 2, 3, and 4, the Simandou North iron ore project has also attracted investor interest. Using a simple wet gravity beneficiation process, the fines content can reach 61-64%, with low alumina content of less than 0.5%. Moreover, during exploration in 2023, some surface ore grades were found to be as high as 63%.

◾ Due to Arrow Minerals' limited development capacity, the company signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Baosteel Resources in October 2024. According to Arrow Minerals' statement, the Simandou North iron ore project will supply iron ore to Baosteel Resources. However, the memorandum is non-binding and serves as an initial step toward further negotiations for binding sales contracts.

Source: Arrow Minerals; SMM; Public channels

Most Iron Ore Will Be Exported Through Guinea's Ports, but Nimba and Zogota May Use Liberian Ports in the Future

◾ Guinea's iron ore is generally shipped from domestic ports. However, Nimba iron ore may be exported through Liberian and Ivorian ports due to its location near Guinea's border. Exporting iron ore from Guinea's Conakry port would require significant investment to build a railway across the country.

◾ Nimba currently plans a railway extension to connect the Nimba region with Liberia's existing Tokadeh railway and Buchanan port, enabling future exports through Liberian ports. Additionally, as the Nimba iron ore project is only 65 km from Liberia's railway, Ivanhoe Atlantic plans to rehabilitate the abandoned Yekepa railway for easier transport to Buchanan port.

◾ Furthermore, ArcelorMittal owns mines in Liberia, with production in the past two years maintaining levels of 4.5 million mt and 3.6 million mt, respectively. Previously, a railway route from Nimba iron ore to Buchanan port was damaged during Liberia's civil war but was later repaired and used by ArcelorMittal. Therefore, Nimba iron ore may also fully utilize ArcelorMittal's current railway.

◾ Zogota iron ore, due to its proximity to Nimba, may also be exported through Liberian ports if approved by the government.

◾ The export of Kalia iron ore mainly relies on western ports, utilizing Guinea's national railway. Yomboyeli, being close to multiple seaports, has more options and greater convenience for exports.

◾ The Simandou North project, being adjacent to Simandou blocks 1 and 2, may share railway transportation in the future, creating operational synergies.

Source: Company announcements; SMM; Public channels

With Guinea's Resource Development, Annual Iron Ore Supply May Exceed 50 Million mt in the Future

◼ With the development of multiple mining resources in Guinea, annual iron ore supply may exceed 50 million mt in the future. Almost all of Guinea's iron ore resources are for export, contributing significantly to global iron ore supply growth.

◼ Moreover, Guinea's iron ore resources are mainly medium- to high-grade, with raw ore grades ranging from 56-65%, and beneficiated concentrates reaching grades as high as 67-68%. Notably, Nimba iron ore will produce 200 million mt of iron ore with a grade of around 68%, greatly contributing to the global demand for low-carbon metallurgy.

◼ By type, Guinea's iron ore resources are primarily hematite, with some goethite and magnetite. However, high-grade ores are mainly contributed by hematite.

Contact Us

SMM Ferrous Consulting continues to work with ferrous industry chain enterprises on overseas investment projects and project evaluations, including steel, iron ore, coke, and end-use industries. Based on a robust industry database and extensive network resources, we are dedicated to providing upstream, midstream, and downstream industry chain consulting services to our clients. Our services include market supply and demand research and forecasting, market entry strategies, competitor cost analysis, and more, covering iron ore, coal, coke, steel, and end-use industries. SMM Black has successfully served >300 Fortune Global 500 companies, China 500 companies, central state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises, publicly listed firms, and startups.