Spot Silicon Metal Prices Show Weak Trend; Silicon Wafer and Solar Cell Inventory Remains Low [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM January 10 News:

Silica

Prices

This week, silica prices remained stable. As the Chinese New Year approaches, some mines have focused on fulfilling existing orders due to transportation and mining restrictions, resulting in fewer new orders overall. The procurement demand for silica from downstream silicon metal manufacturers has shown a significant recovery and is expected to pick up around March. Currently, the mine-mouth price for low-grade silica in Yunnan is 340-360 yuan/mt. The mine-mouth price for high-grade silica is 360-390 yuan/mt in Inner Mongolia, 420-450 yuan/mt in Hubei, and 440-460 yuan/mt in Jiangxi.

Supply and Demand

Supply: With the addition of numerous newly established mining rights in 2024, the overall supply of silica remains abundant.

Demand: Coupled with recent furnace shutdown and maintenance plans in the south-west and north-west regions, the demand for silica continues to weaken.

Silicon Metal

Prices

This week, spot silicon metal prices continued to decline. In the futures market, the Si2502 contract hit a new low during the week, dropping to 10,410 yuan/mt. As futures prices fell, the spot-futures price spread widened, but the prices quoted by traders still held a significant advantage compared to those from silicon manufacturers. Under the influence of low-priced supplies, silicon manufacturers lowered their quotes, but transactions remained difficult. Some manufacturers chose to maintain their quotes or temporarily refrain from quoting.

Production

The total production of silicon metal for the full year of 2024 is expected to reach 4.8988 million mt, an increase of 1.098 million mt or 28.9% YoY. In December, China's silicon metal production was 331,600 mt, down 73,100 mt or 18.1% MoM. In January 2025, the operating rate of China's silicon metal is expected to remain weak, with monthly production continuing to decline.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of January 3, the national social inventory of silicon metal totaled 539,000 mt, up 1,000 mt WoW. Among this, general warehouses held 157,000 mt, up 2,000 mt WoW, while delivery warehouses held 382,000 mt (including unregistered warehouse warrants and spot cargo), down 1,000 mt WoW.

Silicon Wafer

Prices

The market price for N-type 18X silicon wafers was 1.1-1.18 yuan/piece, while N-type 210RN silicon wafers were priced at 1.2-1.35 yuan/piece. This week, silicon wafer prices continued to rise, with price increases observed across various sizes.

Production

In January, silicon wafer production continued to increase, with top-tier enterprises generally showing a proactive attitude toward production expansion. Additionally, some integrated enterprises implemented production expansion plans in response to rising silicon wafer prices, leading to further production growth in January.

Inventory

Silicon wafer inventory remained relatively low, with tight delivery schedules for certain models.

Solar Cell

Prices

The price for high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells (23.2% efficiency and above) was 0.31 yuan/W. The PERC210 solar cell market saw no trading activity. Topcon183 solar cells (25% efficiency and above) were priced at approximately 0.285-0.295 yuan/W, Topcon210RN solar cells at 0.285-0.29 yuan/W, and Topcon210 solar cells at 0.285-0.295 yuan/W. Transaction prices for top-tier battery manufacturers confirmed an increase, while second- and third-tier manufacturers followed the trend with smaller price hikes. The mainstream price for HJT210 half-cell products was 0.36-0.38 yuan/W. HJT cell prices remained stable due to a lack of transactions but are expected to rise next month.

Production

The production schedule for Topcon210RN has shown further declines recently. Some battery production bases with Chinese New Year break plans have started to shut down. HJT production cuts and suspensions have outpaced those of Topcon cells, while BC cell production remained relatively stable.

Inventory

Top-tier battery manufacturers maintained low inventory levels. With production cut plans in place, inventory is expected to decrease further this month.

PV Film

Prices

PV-Grade EVA/POE

The transaction price for PV-grade EVA was 10,300-10,700 yuan/mt. The domestic delivery-to-factory price for PV-grade POE was approximately 12,000-13,500 yuan/mt, with POE prices remaining stable.

PV Film

Currently, the price for 420g transparent EVA film is 5.29-5.46 yuan/m², 420g white EVA film is 5.67-6.05 yuan/m², 380g EPE film is 5.79-5.89 yuan/m², and 380g POE film is 6.84-7.22 yuan/m².

Production

The planned production of PV-grade EVA in January is approximately 100,000 mt. The planned production of PV film in January is about 350 million m². Due to reduced orders, production schedules have been lowered.

Inventory

Currently, petrochemical inventory is extremely low. Demand for stockpiling by film manufacturers is robust, leading to tight market supply.