SMM HRC Weekly Report: Production Surge Leads to Initial Social Inventory Accumulation

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Jan 9, 2025 11:32

[SMM HRC Weekly Balance & Social Inventory Overview] Production Surged, Social Inventory Began to Accumulate

This week, SMM statistics showed that the HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) reached 2.9575 million mt, up 47,500 mt or 1.63% WoW, and down 12.21% YoY based on the lunar calendar. This week, the national social inventory began to see an inventory buildup. By region, the inventory buildup in south and east China was higher than in north, northeast, and central China. Specifically...

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
[SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰] ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์„ , ์‹ค์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์— ๋ชป ๋ฏธ์ณ
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[SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰] ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์„ , ์‹ค์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์— ๋ชป ๋ฏธ์ณ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰] ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์„ , ์‹ค์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์— ๋ชป ๋ฏธ์ณ
[SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰] ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์„ , ์‹ค์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์— ๋ชป ๋ฏธ์ณ
SMM ํ†ต๊ณ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์ด๋ฒˆ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ์˜ ๊ณต์žฅ ์žฌ๊ณ ์™€ ์‚ฌํšŒ ์žฌ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ •๋„์˜ ์ฐจ์ด๋Š” ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์ด์žฌ๊ณ ๋Š” 807๋งŒ 4,000ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ, ์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 11๋งŒ 8,500ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œ(์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ -1.45%)ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
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[SMM ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ] ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ์†Œํญ ์†Œํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
55๋ถ„ ์ „
[SMM ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ] ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ์†Œํญ ์†Œํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ] ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ์†Œํญ ์†Œํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
[SMM ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ] ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ์†Œํญ ์†Œํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
SMM ์กฐ์‚ฌ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ด ์‚ฌํšŒ ์žฌ๊ณ ์˜ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„ ์†๋„๊ฐ€ ์†Œํญ ๋นจ๋ผ์กŒ๋‹ค. 2026๋…„ 9์›” 3์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค€, SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋Š” 545๋งŒ 8์ฒœ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 7๋งŒ 8,900ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œํ•ด 1.43% ์ค„์—ˆ๋‹ค.
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ใ€์„ํƒ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ์— PTBA, ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ์ƒํ–ฅ; ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ 3010๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ•ด์•ผ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ณ„ํš ์ถฉ์กฑใ€‘
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ใ€์„ํƒ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ์— PTBA, ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ์ƒํ–ฅ; ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ 3010๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ•ด์•ผ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ณ„ํš ์ถฉ์กฑใ€‘
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ใ€์„ํƒ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ์— PTBA, ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ์ƒํ–ฅ; ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ 3010๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ•ด์•ผ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ณ„ํš ์ถฉ์กฑใ€‘
ใ€์„ํƒ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ์— PTBA, ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ์ƒํ–ฅ; ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ 3010๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ•ด์•ผ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ณ„ํš ์ถฉ์กฑใ€‘
์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„ ๊ตญ์˜ ์„ํƒ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด PTBA๊ฐ€ 2026๋…„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋ฅผ 4,950๋งŒ ํ†ค์—์„œ 4,955๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์†Œํญ ์ƒํ–ฅ ์กฐ์ •ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ํŒ๋งค ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋Š” 4,951๋งŒ ํ†ค, ์šด์†ก ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋Š” 4,100๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์„ค์ •ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋Š” 5๋งŒ ํ†ค, ์•ฝ 0.1%๋งŒ ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜ ์กฐ์ • ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์— ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ์ง์ ‘์  ์˜๋ฏธ๋Š” ๋งค์šฐ ์ œํ•œ์ ์ด๋‹ค. ๋” ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ ์€ PTBA์˜ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์ด ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 10% ๊ฐ์†Œํ•œ 1,945๋งŒ ํ†ค์— ๊ทธ์ณค๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋ฅผ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ์— ์•ฝ 3,010๋งŒ ํ†ค์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰๋ณด๋‹ค ์•ฝ 54.8% ๋งŽ์€ ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด๋‹ค. ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ์•ฝ 2,841๋งŒ ํ†ค์„ ํŒ๋งคํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ, ์ด๋Š” ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ํŒ๋งค๋Ÿ‰๋ณด๋‹ค ์•ฝ 34.6% ๋งŽ์€ ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋กœ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ํšŒ๋ณต์ด ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ์šด์†ก ๋ฐ ํŒ๋งค ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰์œผ๋กœ ๋’ท๋ฐ›์นจ๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•จ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. PTBA์˜ 2๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์ง์ „ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 94% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๊ณ  ํŒ๋งค๋Ÿ‰์€ 8% ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜ ์šด์˜์ด ํšŒ๋ณต๋˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Œ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ํ‰๊ท  ํŒ๋งค๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ง์ „ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 14%, ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 10% ์ƒ์Šนํ•ด ๋งค์ถœ์€ 8% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ 22์กฐ 300์–ต ๋ฃจํ”ผ์•„๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๊ณ , ๋ชจํšŒ์‚ฌ ๊ท€์† ์ˆœ์ด์ต์€ 218% ๊ธ‰์ฆํ•œ 2์กฐ 6,500์–ต ๋ฃจํ”ผ์•„๋ฅผ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ฐ ํŒ๋งค ํ™•๋Œ€ ์œ ์ธ์ด ์ปค์กŒ๋‹ค. PTBA์˜ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜ ํŒ๋งค๋Š” ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 9% ๊ฐ์†Œํ•œ 1,077๋งŒ ํ†ค์ด์—ˆ๊ณ , ์ˆ˜์ถœ์€ 5% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ 1,033๋งŒ ํ†ค์„ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ถœ ํŒ๋งค๋„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ•  ๊ณ„ํš์ด๋‹ค.
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[SMM HRC Weekly Balance & Social Inventory Overview] Production Surged - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)