SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting: Tariff Uncertainty, Strong Dollar Pressure Prices; Fundamentals Show Mixed Signals

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Uncertainty in US Tariff Policy and Rising US Dollar Index Weigh on Aluminum Prices]

Macro front, the Chinese government continues efforts to boost consumption, while uncertainty over the US Fed's interest rate cut pace has increased. Fundamentals side, although multiple aluminum smelters in Sichuan and Guangxi reduced production in December, with some capacity restarts stalled, production still showed positive YoY growth. Demand side, under off-season conditions, market demand continued to weaken, aluminum processing industry operating rates declined steadily, and some aluminum processing plants are nearing holiday shutdowns. Overall, fundamentals side, supply-side pressure has slightly eased, but weak demand during the off-season and rising risks of inventory buildup in social stocks persist. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate downward. In the long term, attention should remain on the US Fed's future stance on interest rate cuts and changes in the pace of consumption recovery.