Overnight Copper Prices Rose First and Then Fell as the Market Awaits Economic Data Release [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

SMM, January 7: Overnight, LME copper opened at $8,891/mt, initially dipped to $8,872/mt, then surged during the session to a high of $9,076/mt. It slightly pulled back at the close, finally settling at $8,966/mt, up by 0.82%. Trading volume reached 28,000 lots, and open interest stood at 282,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2502 contract opened at 74,530 yuan/mt, initially climbed to 74,680 yuan/mt, then declined to a low of 74,250 yuan/mt during the session. It rebounded and consolidated sideways at the close, finally settling at 74,500 yuan/mt, up by 1.14%. Trading volume reached 50,900 lots, and open interest stood at 148,000 lots. Macro side, the US dollar index plunged sharply as US media reported that Trump would impose universal tariffs only on key imported goods, driving copper prices higher. However, Trump later posted on social media denying the reports of scaled-back tariff policies, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index, which limited copper price gains. Fundamentally, the market supply of copper cathode remained tight, with imported sources mainly consisting of non-registered and wet-process materials. As of Monday, January 6, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China increased by 1,500 mt compared to last Thursday, reaching 115,800 mt. Total inventories were 42,900 mt higher than the 72,900 mt recorded in the same period last year. This week, due to the beginning of the year, downstream enterprises are expected to have ample funds, likely boosting operating rates and leading to a reduction in weekly inventories. On prices, US Fed Governor Cook stated that interest rate cuts could be approached more cautiously. Additionally, multiple Fed officials are scheduled to speak, and economic data will be released this week. The US dollar index is expected to remain strong, and resistance for copper prices persists.