Polysilicon Prices Temporarily Stable, Silicon Metal Market Consolidates at Low Levels [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM, January 6:

Silicon Metal

Prices

Spot silicon metal prices continued to weaken last week. Last Friday, above-standard #553 silicon metal in east China was priced at 11,100-11,300 yuan/mt. Silicon futures contract Si2502 hit a new low, dropping below 10,800 yuan/mt. Downstream users stockpiled goods based on demand ahead of the Chinese New Year, while the market atmosphere for concentrated procurement remained subdued, and silicon prices stabilized at low levels.

Production

In December, silicon metal supply and demand both remained weak. From a supply-demand balance perspective, December still showed a slight surplus. In January, as production cuts continue on the supply side, the monthly supply-demand balance is expected to stabilize.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of January 3, the national social inventory of silicon metal totaled 539,000 mt, up 1,000 mt WoW. Among this, general warehouse inventory was 157,000 mt, up 2,000 mt WoW, while inventory in delivery warehouses (including unregistered warehouse warrants and spot cargo) was 382,000 mt, down 1,000 mt WoW.

Polysilicon

Prices

By the weekend, mainstream prices for N-type polysilicon were 39-42 yuan/kg, while mainstream prices for dense polysilicon were 35-36 yuan/kg. Downstream stockpiling ahead of the Chinese New Year was largely completed, and market transactions were limited, keeping polysilicon prices temporarily stable.

Production

This week, polysilicon production remained stable, with no new enterprises starting or halting operations in the market. Unexpected production cuts occurred last week. Domestic polysilicon production in January is currently expected to be less than 90,000 mt.

Inventory

Due to concentrated order signing for pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling in mid-to-late December, polysilicon saw multiple large orders, leading to a decline in inventory earlier. This week, as the pace of picking up goods slowed, polysilicon inventory may slightly increase.

Modules

Prices

In the current module market, mainstream transaction prices for N-type 182mm modules were 0.64-0.69 yuan/W, while N-type 210mm modules were 0.65-0.7 yuan/W. The price range for spot cargo in the centralized market remained stable, while transaction prices in the distributed market showed signs of slight downward adjustments.

Production

Demand has entered the off-season in Q1, and most enterprises plan to lower their operating rates, producing only based on demand. It is expected that module operating rates will remain low in January-February, focusing on selling inventory.

Inventory

Year-end inventory saw some destocking, but overall inventory levels remain at 1-1.5 months.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Prices

Domestic high-purity quartz sand prices remained stable. Currently, domestic inner-layer sand is priced at 60,000-75,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 30,000-40,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 19,000-25,000 yuan/mt. Recently, domestic sand quotations have started to plan for increases due to tight raw material supply, but the final results have not yet materialized.

Production

Domestic top-tier enterprises maintained low operating rates, and subsequent production is expected to decline further due to restrictions on ore mining resources.

Inventory

Recently, domestic quartz sand inventory has slightly increased. However, last week, spot transactions of imported sand performed well, and traders began destocking their imported sand inventory.

PV Glass

Prices

3.2mm Single-Layer Coating: The price of 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was 19.5-20.5 yuan/m², remaining stable.

3.2mm Double-Layer Coating: The price of 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was 20.5-21.5 yuan/m², remaining stable.

2.0mm Single-Layer Coating: The price of 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was 11.5-12.5 yuan/m², remaining stable.

2.0mm Double-Layer Coating: The price of 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was 12.5-13.5 yuan/m², remaining stable.

Production

In January, a domestic 4,000 mt/day kiln is scheduled for cold repair, with a 1,800 mt/day kiln expected to begin cold repair soon, leading to a further decline in supply.

Inventory

In December, domestic glass inventory slightly increased. In January, some downstream enterprise orders were combined for January-February, and current glass inventory buildup pressure is relatively small.