Copper Prices Rose Last Friday Night; What Is Today's Trend? [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM, January 6: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $8,806/mt, initially dipped to $8,791.5/mt, then fluctuated upward throughout the session, reaching a high of $8,908/mt near the close, and finally settled at $8,893.5/mt, up 1.05%. Trading volume reached 16,900 lots, and open interest stood at 261,000 lots. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2502 contract opened at 73,230 yuan/mt, initially dipped to 73,160 yuan/mt, then surged to an intraday high of 73,850 yuan/mt, followed by a slight pullback and rangebound fluctuations near the close, ultimately settling at 73,810 yuan/mt, up 1.08%. Trading volume reached 34,300 lots, and open interest stood at 154,000 lots. Macro side, last Friday, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on "China's High-Quality Economic Development Achievements," which led to a rebound in market sentiment. Looking ahead to this week, the US is expected to release multiple labour market data points, along with speeches from several US Fed officials. However, US data is unlikely to weaken the US dollar index at this stage, which will weigh on copper prices. Fundamentally, although copper prices have remained at low levels recently, end-use demand has not shown significant growth due to seasonal factors. Additionally, copper cathode import volumes in January are expected to remain flat compared to December, and spot premiums are likely to face pressure. In terms of prices, uncertainties surrounding US economic expectations remain high. Although the US dollar index pulled back slightly last Friday, it is expected to continue fluctuating at highs. On the fundamental side, the seasonal weakening of demand is expected to deepen further, suggesting copper prices may face resistance on the upside today.