Raw Material Side: This week, refinery petroleum coke prices were largely stable. Low-sulphur petroleum coke prices remained firm, rising slightly during the week, while medium- and high-sulphur petroleum coke prices weakened slightly with stable sales performance. Specifically, petroleum coke prices at CNOOC refineries remained stable this week. PetroChina's petroleum coke prices in north-east China rose slightly during the week by 100-160 yuan/mt, while prices at Dagang Petrochemical in north China decreased by 80 yuan/mt to 3,200 yuan/mt. For Sinopec, refinery shipments were stable during the week, with petroleum coke prices largely stable. Local refineries saw average sales performance, as most downstream enterprises had completed stockpiling earlier and are now primarily restocking based on immediate needs. Short-term petroleum coke prices are expected to remain largely stable with slight adjustments. As of now, the average petroleum coke price at local refineries is approximately 1,863 yuan/mt, down 1.48% WoW. In the coal tar pitch market, prices remained stable during the week. As of Thursday, SMM data showed the average coal tar pitch price at 3,618 yuan/mt. Overall, the cost side of prebaked anodes weakened this week, slightly reducing support for prebaked anode prices.
In Terms of Supply: With temperatures dropping in north China and the heating season beginning, strengthened environmental protection-related controls have restricted production at many enterprises, particularly in Henan, Hebei, and Shandong, leading to a reduction in overall supply.
In Terms of Demand: Although several aluminum smelters in Sichuan and Guangxi reduced production in December, and some capacity resumption progress stalled, production still showed YoY growth, keeping demand for prebaked anodes relatively sufficient.
Brief Analysis: During the week, benchmark prebaked anode tender prices were finalized. According to SMM, a major aluminum smelter in Shandong raised its January 2025 prebaked anode tender price by 278 yuan/mt MoM, with the spot execution price at 4,025 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, export order prices for prebaked anodes increased by $30-40/mt due to rising raw material costs. The raw material market experienced slight fluctuations this week. SMM data showed that as of January 2, the cost of prebaked anodes in China was 4,287 yuan/mt, up 0.3% WoW. With the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, most enterprises have already completed sufficient stockpiling. The current raw material market lacks further upward momentum. Coupled with recent reports of production cuts on both the supply and demand sides of the prebaked anode market, prebaked anode prices are expected to remain largely stable in the short term. Future attention should focus on the production and operations of prebaked anodes and downstream aluminum enterprises.
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