The Pricing of Crescent Has Not Yet Been Determined; Confidence in the Continuous Rise of Aluminum Fluoride Prices Is Insufficient [SMM Fluoride Weekly Review]

SMM, January 2:

This week, aluminum fluoride prices slightly weakened. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 12,500-13,200 yuan/mt, while SMM cryolite prices were quoted at 6,500-7,200 yuan/mt.

This week, the raw material market for aluminum fluoride remained relatively stable but showed slight loosening. For key raw materials, fluorite prices stayed stable at approximately 3,450-3,800 yuan/mt, with a weekly average price of 3,608 yuan, unchanged from last week. This stability was mainly due to strict government inspections of mines and increased production and transportation costs caused by falling temperatures in north China, further tightening supply. However, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, most downstream enterprises have completed stockpiling and are only conducting necessary restocking, leading to mediocre overall market transactions. On the other hand, aluminum hydroxide prices declined due to the loosening of alumina prices, with a weekly average price of 3,585 yuan/mt, down by 0.47%. Overall, while fluorite prices remained stable, the decline in aluminum hydroxide prices slightly weakened the market support on the raw material side for aluminum fluoride.

From the supply side, although the loosening of the raw material market improved production activities and increased inventory for aluminum fluoride enterprises, factors such as environmental protection and maintenance continued to impact supply in certain regions. On the demand side, despite production cuts at multiple aluminum smelters in Sichuan and Guangxi in December and delays in some resumption projects, overall production still showed YoY growth, and market demand remained generally positive.

Brief Comment: Currently, the aluminum fluoride market is facing some challenges. Although production pressure on enterprises has eased and operating rates have slightly increased, weak localized downstream demand and a price-suppressing mindset have dampened market confidence, potentially leading to stable-to-slightly-declining prices in the short term. Additionally, with the transition to a new month, market participants are engaging in a new round of negotiations, and the tender prices of benchmark enterprises will play a critical guiding role. Against this backdrop, market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach, awaiting clearer price signals to adjust subsequent strategies.

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