Refined zinc production for the full year of 2024 is expected to fall short of expectations, while production at the beginning of 2025 is expected to continue increasing [SMM Analysis].

SMM, December 31:

In December 2024, SMM reported that China's refined zinc production increased by nearly 10,000 mt MoM or over 1% MoM, but decreased by more than 12% YoY, falling short of expectations. Cumulatively, domestic refined zinc production in 2024 declined by nearly 7% YoY. Among this, domestic zinc alloy production in December decreased by over 5,000 mt MoM. Entering December, the MoM growth in domestic smelters' production was below expectations, mainly due to greater-than-expected reductions by enterprises in Hunan, Guangdong, and Jiangxi. However, production recovery and increases from smelters in Qinghai, Shaanxi, Gansu, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia contributed some increments, while additional production in Shanxi also supported the overall increase, resulting in a slight production growth overall.

SMM expects domestic refined zinc production in January 2025 to increase by over 15,000 mt MoM or nearly 3% MoM. Overall, smelters' production in January is expected to continue increasing, mainly because, apart from production cuts due to maintenance in Hunan, Guangxi, and Sichuan, as well as varying levels of Chinese New Year breaks at the end of January, regions such as Hunan, Guangdong, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, and Jiangxi are all expected to see varying degrees of production growth. Additionally, considering the Chinese New Year break arrangements and reduced production days, February production is expected to decline.

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