In December, affected by environmental protection inspections in some regions, alumina operating capacity saw a slight decrease MoM [SMM Analysis].

SMM  December 31—

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in December 2024 (31 days) increased 1.67% MoM and was up 9.80% YoY. As of December 31, China's existing metallurgical-grade alumina capacity was approximately 103.02 million mt, with operating capacity slightly down 0.44% MoM and an operating rate of 86.30%. For the full year of 2024, domestic metallurgical-grade alumina production increased 4.86% YoY. During the month, operating capacity dropped back slightly due to the combined impact of environmental protection-related production cuts in Shanxi and maintenance of some capacity in Shandong. However, as downstream aluminum production also experienced cuts during the month, the slight surplus in alumina supply and demand remained unchanged, with the surplus narrowing.

Forecast for next month: Entering January, SMM learned that domestic alumina refineries have no large-scale maintenance plans, and the recovery of production cuts due to environmental protection may have some impact. It is expected that the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical-grade alumina in January will reach 89.77 million mt/year. On the raw material side, there is no further news on the resumption of domestic ore production, and supply remains tight. For imported ore, data from December 27 showed that the total weekly port arrivals of bauxite at domestic ports were 3.66 million mt, up 637,900 mt from the previous week. Weekly port departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports totaled 3.2006 million mt, up 162,000 mt from the previous week, while weekly port departures from Australia's main ports totaled 1.1807 million mt, up 448,400 mt from the previous week. This indicates that the impact of the rainy season has subsided, and domestic bauxite port arrivals have rebounded. In December, the average weekly port arrivals of bauxite at domestic ports were 3.428 million mt/week, up 241,700 mt/week from November's 3.1863 million mt/week. Additionally, SMM learned that Guinea's average weekly bauxite shipments during the first three weeks of December were 3.47 million mt/week, significantly improved compared to the average weekly shipments of 3.15 million mt/week in June 2024 (before the rainy season). This is expected to support the high operating levels of alumina capacity in the future. SMM will continue to monitor the pace of new and resumed alumina capacity coming online.