Australian Bauxite Shipments May See a Slight Decline; Bauxite Prices Expected to Fluctuate Upward in the Short Term [SMM Weekly Review]

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SMM, December 26:

Domestic Bauxite:

The domestic bauxite market showed no significant changes this week.

As of today, the self pick-up transaction price excluding VAT for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and alumina content of 60% was approximately 620-660 yuan/mt in Shanxi, 560-600 yuan/mt in Henan, 510-550 yuan/mt in Guizhou (Al/Si ratio of 5.5, alumina content of 58%), and 320-335 yuan/mt in Guangxi (Al/Si ratio of 6.0, alumina content of 53%).

Imported Bauxite:

According to data from December 20, the weekly port arrivals of bauxite at domestic ports totaled 3.0221 million mt, a decrease of 330,900 mt compared to the previous week. Weekly port departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports totaled 3.0386 million mt, down by 561,500 mt from the previous week, while weekly port departures from Australia's main ports totaled 732,300 mt, a decrease of 359,900 mt.

Entering December, the impact of Australia's rainy season is expected to gradually emerge. During the first three weeks of December, the average weekly port departures of bauxite from Australia were 852,500 mt, down by 213,200 mt compared to the average weekly departures of 1.0657 million mt in November. It is anticipated that from December to January of the following year, China's bauxite imports from Australia may see some reductions. Meanwhile, Guinea's bauxite port arrivals are expected to rebound, with the increase likely to exceed the reduction from Australia. China's bauxite imports from December to January of the following year are projected to increase compared to September-November.

SMM Comments: The significant profitability of alumina has stimulated the operating rate of alumina refineries, and in the short term, the demand for bauxite raw materials from alumina production and new alumina projects is expected to remain high. In the short term, domestic bauxite supply is expected to remain stable, while imported bauxite supply is projected to increase compared to September-November. However, it is still unlikely to fully meet demand, and the spot market for bauxite is expected to remain in undersupply, with bauxite prices likely to continue fluctuating upward.

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