Looking Ahead to 2025: Will Aluminium Prices Stay Supported?

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Jan 2, 2025 18:03
์ถœ์ฒ˜: SMM
The global aluminium market faced challenges in 2024, including alumina shortages, geopolitical tensions, and shipping disruptions. In 2025, alumina supply is expected to recover, creating a surplus, while primary aluminium may shift to a narrow surplus amid limited capacity growth and steady demand. Regional markets will vary, with the U.S. remaining resilient and Europe facing supply risks. Aluminium prices are likely to stay supported but volatile due to economic recovery, geopolitical factors, and cost pressures.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
์ฃผ์„ฑ๊ฒฝํ•ฉ๊ธˆ, NEV ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ˜ธ์ผ ํ™•์žฅ์œผ๋กœ 10์–ต ์œ„์•ˆ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
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์ฃผ์„ฑ๊ฒฝํ•ฉ๊ธˆ, NEV ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ˜ธ์ผ ํ™•์žฅ์œผ๋กœ 10์–ต ์œ„์•ˆ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์ฃผ์„ฑ๊ฒฝํ•ฉ๊ธˆ, NEV ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ˜ธ์ผ ํ™•์žฅ์œผ๋กœ 10์–ต ์œ„์•ˆ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
์ฃผ์„ฑ๊ฒฝํ•ฉ๊ธˆ, NEV ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ˜ธ์ผ ํ™•์žฅ์œผ๋กœ 10์–ต ์œ„์•ˆ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
์ฃผ์„ฑ ๊ฒฝํ•ฉ๊ธˆ์€ ๊ณ ์„ฑ๋Šฅ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ํŒ์žฌ, ์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆฝ, ํ˜ธ์ผ ๋ฐ ๊ด€๋ จ ์ œํ’ˆ ๊ฐ€๊ณต์„ ์ „๋ฌธ์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, 4.7์–ต ์œ„์•ˆ์˜ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์•ก์„ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋…ธ์Šค์ฐจ์ด๋‚˜ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„๊ณผ ํ˜‘๋ ฅ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•œ ํ›„, 20๋ช… ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์ „๋ฌธ ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„์„ ์„ฑ๊ณต์ ์œผ๋กœ ์˜์ž…ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ํŒ€์€ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ NEV ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ˜ธ์ผ ๋“ฑ ์‹ ํฅ ๋ถ„์•ผ๋กœ ์ œํ’ˆ ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ํ™•์žฅํ•˜๋„๋ก ์ง€์›ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์—ฐ๋‚ด ์ƒ์‚ฐ์•ก 10์–ต ์œ„์•ˆ ๋ŒํŒŒ๋ฅผ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
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์„œ๋‚จ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„, ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์‹ ๊ธฐ๋ก ๋‹ฌ์„ฑโ€ฆ ์ž๋™์ฐจยท์„ ๋ฐ• ํŒ์žฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๊ธ‰์ฆ
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์„œ๋‚จ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„, ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์‹ ๊ธฐ๋ก ๋‹ฌ์„ฑโ€ฆ ์ž๋™์ฐจยท์„ ๋ฐ• ํŒ์žฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๊ธ‰์ฆ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์„œ๋‚จ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„, ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์‹ ๊ธฐ๋ก ๋‹ฌ์„ฑโ€ฆ ์ž๋™์ฐจยท์„ ๋ฐ• ํŒ์žฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๊ธ‰์ฆ
์„œ๋‚จ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„, ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์‹ ๊ธฐ๋ก ๋‹ฌ์„ฑโ€ฆ ์ž๋™์ฐจยท์„ ๋ฐ• ํŒ์žฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๊ธ‰์ฆ
์˜ฌํ•ด 5์›” ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ ์„œ๋‚จ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„์˜ ์ œํ’ˆ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 10.1% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋™๊ธฐ ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ƒ์‚ฐ-ํŒ๋งค ๋น„์œจ์€ 100%๋ฅผ ์œ ์ง€ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ตฌ์ฒด์ ์œผ๋กœ, ์••์—ฐ ๊ณต์žฅ์€ ์••์—ฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๊ณต์ •์„ ๊ฐœ์„ ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์ด ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 3.4% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๊ณ , ํŒ์žฌยท์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆฝ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ „๋ฉด์ ์ธ ์„ธ๋ถ€ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ผ์ •์— ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์ด ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 8.4% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ทธ ์—ด์—ฐ ์—ฐ์† ์••์—ฐ ๋ผ์ธ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 5.1% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ์‹ ๊ธฐ๋ก์„ ์„ธ์› ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์ž๋™์ฐจ์šฉ ํŒ์žฌ์™€ ์„ ๋ฐ•์šฉ ํŒ์žฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ ๊ฐ๊ฐ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 72% ๋ฐ 174.1% ๊ธ‰์ฆํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
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์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ 2026๋…„ 5์›” ์—์–ด์ปจ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ฐ ํŒ๋งค ๊ฐ์†Œ, ๋‚ด์ˆ˜ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ํฐ ํƒ€๊ฒฉ
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์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ 2026๋…„ 5์›” ์—์–ด์ปจ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ฐ ํŒ๋งค ๊ฐ์†Œ, ๋‚ด์ˆ˜ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ํฐ ํƒ€๊ฒฉ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ 2026๋…„ 5์›” ์—์–ด์ปจ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ฐ ํŒ๋งค ๊ฐ์†Œ, ๋‚ด์ˆ˜ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ํฐ ํƒ€๊ฒฉ
์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ 2026๋…„ 5์›” ์—์–ด์ปจ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ฐ ํŒ๋งค ๊ฐ์†Œ, ๋‚ด์ˆ˜ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ํฐ ํƒ€๊ฒฉ
ChinaIOL ๋ชจ๋‹ˆํ„ฐ๋ง ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, 2026๋…„ 5์›” ์ค‘๊ตญ ๊ฐ€์ •์šฉ ์—์–ด์ปจ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ 1,874๋งŒ ๋Œ€๋กœ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 10.0% ๊ฐ์†Œ, ํŒ๋งค๋Ÿ‰์€ 1,958๋งŒ ๋Œ€๋กœ 11.1% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด ์ค‘ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์€ 758๋งŒ ๋Œ€๋กœ 4.2% ๊ฐ์†Œ, ๋‚ด์ˆ˜๋Š” 1,200๋งŒ ๋Œ€๋กœ 15.0% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ƒ์‚ฐ๊ณผ ํŒ๋งค๋Š” ๊ณ„์†ํ•ด์„œ ๊ฐ์†Œ์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ตœ์ข… ์†Œ๋น„ ์‹œ์žฅ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜ ํŒ๋งค์˜ ์ „๋…„ ๋Œ€๋น„ ๊ฐ์†Œ ํญ์ด ํฌ๊ฒŒ ํ™•๋Œ€๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์žฌ๊ณ  ์••๋ ฅ ์†์—์„œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ์„ ์ œ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ค„์—ฌ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„์— ๋Œ์ž…ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
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The global aluminium market faced challenges in 2024, including alumin - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)