Turning Point for Aluminum Plate/Sheet and Strip Exports May Have Arrived [SMM Analysis]

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SMM, December 20, 2024:

According to customs data, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports in November 2024 totaled 324,400 mt, up 36% YoY and 8% MoM.

By export destination, the top 5 destinations for aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports in November were Mexico, South Korea, Vietnam, Canada, and Thailand, with Mexico remaining the top destination. In November, China exported approximately 186,300 mt of aluminum plate/sheet and strip to the top 10 destinations, accounting for about 57.45% of the total aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports.

By province, Henan, Shandong, and Zhejiang remained the main exporters of aluminum plate/sheet and strip in November. The top 5 exporting provinces collectively exported 223,600 mt of aluminum plate/sheet and strip in November, representing about 68.92% of the total exports.

On November 15, the Chinese government announced the cancellation of aluminum semis export tax rebates effective December 1. In response, Chinese aluminum plate/sheet and strip enterprises actively communicated with downstream clients and accelerated shipment schedules. This contributed to the significant growth in November's export volume, which aligned with expectations. However, with the removal of export tax rebates, many aluminum plate/sheet and strip enterprises reported having to forgo some overseas orders due to the loss of price competitiveness. Looking ahead, the partial loss of overseas orders, combined with the advance shipments in November depleting regular volumes, is expected to mark a turning point for aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports, leading to a downturn.

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