US Dollar Rises to Two-Year High, LME Zinc Records Four-Day Losing Streak [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

Overnight, the US Q3 GDP was unexpectedly revised significantly upward, and initial jobless claims fell more than anticipated; the Bank of Japan held its policy steady again, with expectations for yen appreciation dropping to a one-month low; the Bank of England's voting split surprised the market, with its statement hinting at a quarterly interest rate cut; US House Republicans urgently sought alternative solutions to avoid a government shutdown; the "Administrative Measures for Online Marketing of Financial Products" may be released; brokers took action again to strictly prohibit disguised T+0 trading through securities lending; the PV Industry Association issued a rare four consecutive inquiries, questioning the winning bid results of central state-owned enterprise projects; ByteDance warned of market speculation on "Doubao concept stocks," advising against believing rumors.

Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,980/mt. At the beginning of the session, LME zinc fluctuated rangebound around the daily moving average. During European trading hours, bears increased positions, pushing LME zinc down to $2,952.5/mt. Subsequently, the center returned to the daily moving average for consolidation, reaching a high of $3,001.5/mt during the night session. By the end of the session, the center shifted downward to $2,970/mt, closing down at $2,970/mt, a decrease of $31/mt or 1.03%. Trading volume increased to 11,716 lots, and open interest rose by 1,500 mt to 231,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc recorded a four-day losing streak, with the daily candlestick center moving downward. LME inventory decreased by 2,875 mt to 257,525 mt, a drop of 1.1%, marking a reduction in LME inventory. The larger-than-expected decline in US initial jobless claims reinforced cautious expectations for future interest rate cuts, pushing the US dollar index to a two-year high. Base metals collectively retreated, with LME zinc's center moving downward.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2502 contract opened at 24,935 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE zinc briefly consolidated around the daily moving average before quickly rallying to a high of 25,040 yuan/mt. Subsequently, shorts launched high-level attacks, causing SHFE zinc to decline stepwise. By the end of the session, the center shifted downward to 24,890 yuan/mt, closing down at 24,895 yuan/mt, a decrease of 15 yuan/mt or 0.06%. Trading volume decreased to 42,637 lots, while open interest increased by 1,222 lots to 125,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a five-day losing streak, with the 40-day moving average forming resistance above, and the KDJ indicator expanding downward. Although social inventory declined overnight, poor macro sentiment weighed on zinc prices.