Trends in China's Silicon Metal Capacity Changes in Recent Years: Xinjiang's Growth Stands Out [SMM Analysis]

By the end of December 2024, China's silicon metal capacity (calculated based on 300 operating days) is expected to exceed 7 million mt. The reasons for the increase in silicon metal capacity in recent years can be categorized into two main types. One is the technological transformation of smelting equipment to enhance production, including this year's technological upgrades to 33,000 KVA large electric arc furnaces, which increased daily output. The other, and the primary reason, is the commissioning of newly constructed silicon metal capacity. In 2024, the newly commissioned silicon metal capacity in China is expected to reach 475,000 mt (based on announced capacity, typically less than actual values), mainly distributed in Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. Projects planned for commissioning in 2025 and beyond are concentrated in Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan. Among these, Yunnan's projects include XA silicone supporting project and YC expansion project, while Sichuan's projects are primarily TW polysilicon supporting project. The planned capacities in other regions remain concentrated in north-west China. Looking at future changes in silicon metal capacity, the proportion of capacity in northern regions is expected to further increase, while capacities in Guangxi, Guizhou, Hunan, and Fujian will gradually be reduced. Overall, total capacity is expected to continue increasing.