Q3 Overseas Zinc Mine Production Rebounds: What to Expect for Overseas Mines in 2025? [SMM Analysis]

According to SMM data, various factors such as continuous mine shutdowns, declining raw ore grades, equipment failures, and heavy rain and floods have led to a significant YoY decline in overseas zinc mine production in H1. Entering Q3, several overseas mines were put into operation, and some mines saw increased grinding volumes or improved raw ore grades, resulting in a QoQ rebound in Q3 overseas zinc mine production.

SMM conducted a statistical analysis of 17 major overseas miners. According to the disclosed data, these 17 miners produced a total of 1.2128 million mt of zinc concentrate in Q3 2024, up 39,000 mt (3.3%) QoQ from 1.1738 million mt in Q2 2024, but down 9,400 mt (-0.8%) YoY from 1.2223 million mt in Q3 2023.
By miner:
Boliden: Zinc production in Q3 2024 was 45,073 mt, up 19.8% QoQ and 20.7% YoY. The report disclosed that zinc concentrate production at The Boliden Area in Sweden was 14,096 mt in Q3, up 20.9% QoQ; the Tara mine had no production in Q3 but is expected to increase production after the end of Q3; zinc concentrate production at the Garpenberg mine in Sweden was 30,978 mt in Q3, up 19.3% QoQ and 27.6% YoY. On a YoY basis, the Garpenberg mine contributed the main increase in Q3.

Buenaventura: Zinc production in Q3 2024 was 7,374 mt, up 16% QoQ and 96% YoY. The report disclosed that the El Brocal mine in Peru had no zinc concentrate output in Q3; zinc production at the Uchucchacua mine in Peru was 6,153 mt in Q3, up 26.24% QoQ, with silver, lead, and zinc production in line with quarterly expectations, reaching a daily throughput of 1,500 mt in Q3 2024, in line with the company's target of reaching a daily throughput of 1,500 mt by year-end 2024.

Ludin: Zinc concentrate production at the Zinkgruvan mine in Sweden was 17,101 mt in Q3, down 21.4% QoQ, reflecting lower grades and throughput driven by changes in mining sequence and operational and maintenance interruptions; zinc concentrate production at the Neves-Corvo mine in Portugal was 29,509 mt in Q3, up 14.84% QoQ.

MMG: Zinc concentrate production in Q3 2024 was 46,443 mt, down 7.7% QoQ and 21.6% YoY. Zinc concentrate production at the Dugald River mine was 34,843 mt in Q3; zinc concentrate production at the Rosebery mine was 11,600 mt in Q3, with zinc production declining due to mining sequence, planned maintenance in September, and lower zinc grades, expected to improve and stabilize in Q4.

Newmont: Zinc concentrate production in Q3 2024 was 57,600 mt, down 11.8% QoQ.

Nexa: Zinc concentrate production in Q3 2024 totaled 82,700 mt, down 5% YoY.

Pan American Silver Corp: Zinc concentrate production in Q3 2024 was 11,200 mt, up 17.9% YoY and 10.9% QoQ.

South32: Zinc concentrate production in Q3 2024 was 12,100 mt, down 30.5% QoQ and 8.3% YoY.

TECK: Zinc concentrate production at the Red Dog mine in Q3 2024 was 142,500 mt, up 14.4% YoY.

Vedanta: Zinc concentrate production at the Zinc India mine in India was 25,600 mt in Q3, down 2.7% QoQ; zinc concentrate production at the Zinc International mine increased 15.79% QoQ, with zinc production at the BMM mine at 12,000 mt in Q3 and production at the Gamsberg mine at 32,000 mt in Q3.

Glencore: Self-produced zinc production in Q3 2024 increased by 14,800 mt (7%) QoQ to 226,400 mt, mainly due to increased production at Zhairem. The full-year production guidance remains unchanged but is leaning towards the lower end of the guidance at 900,000 mt.

Antamina: Zinc concentrate production in Q3 2024 was 67,800 mt, up 21.9% QoQ, with production expected to recover in 2025.

Market Outlook
The production of newly put into operation mines overseas is gradually being released. Vares in Bosnia and Herzegovina sold its first batch of concentrate in May 2024, with increased production days in 2025, and production is expected to grow; Kipushi in Congo produced its first batch of zinc concentrate in June 2024, with a 2024 production guidance of 50,000-70,000 mt, and is expected to reach full production by mid-2025; Ozernoye in Russia announced its operation in September 2024 and plans to reach full production in 2025. In addition to these newly put into operation mines, other mines such as the Tara mine in Ireland and the Antamina mine in Peru are expected to see significant production recovery in 2025. Overall, global zinc mine production is expected to increase significantly in 2025, and if these mines release production as scheduled, the global ore shortage may be significantly alleviated next year.