Short-term sufficient imported tin ingots combined with macroeconomic data suppress tin prices [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

According to the latest data, the economic performance of both China and the US in 2024 shows certain growth trends, but with different drivers and characteristics. The US economy grew by 0.7% QoQ in Q3, with an annualized growth rate of 2.8%. Although this is below market expectations, it still demonstrates strong growth resilience. Meanwhile, China's economy slowed down quarter by quarter in the first three quarters, with YoY GDP growth rates of 5.3%, 4.7%, and 4.6%, respectively, facing some downward pressure. However, the timely stimulus measures introduced by the Chinese government are expected to boost economic growth in Q4.

In terms of imports: In October 2024, China's refined tin imports surged by 55.11% MoM to 3,050.68 mt, mainly due to the gradual arrival of pre-ordered shipments by import traders. Additionally, cumulative refined tin imports from January to October totaled 15,100 mt, down 34.81% YoY, reflecting changes in domestic tin market demand.

In terms of exports: During the same period, China exported 1,551.15 mt of refined tin, up 56.8% MoM and up 47.13% YoY. Notably, exports under the Processing with Imported Materials trade mode saw a significant MoM increase of 288.43%, mainly to Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and other countries and regions. Cumulative refined tin exports from January to October reached 13,700 mt, up 33.75% YoY, indicating the competitiveness of Chinese tin products in the international market.

Considering the economic data of China and the US, as well as the import, export, and production of tin ingots, SHFE tin prices are influenced by multiple factors. On one hand, the robust growth of the US economy and the advantage of the US dollar exchange rate provide some support to the global tin market. On the other hand, the slowdown in China's economic growth and the implementation of stimulus measures may impact tin demand. Additionally, changes in tin ingot imports, exports, and production will directly affect SHFE tin prices.

From recent trends, SHFE tin prices have shown a fluctuating downward trend. This is mainly due to the opening of the import window, leading to a significant increase in domestic tin ingot supply, while the demand side, although maintaining high growth in the automotive sector, is suppressed by the rising US dollar index. It is expected that in the near future, SHFE tin prices will continue to maintain a fluctuating downward trend, but specific price fluctuations will need to be monitored in light of changes in international and domestic economic conditions, policy changes, and the supply and demand situation in the tin market.