Trump Stirs Up Tariff Controversy Again, Aluminum Market Risk Aversion Intensifies [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2501 contract opened at 20,560 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 20,615 yuan/mt and a low of 20,505 yuan/mt, closing at 20,540 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous day, a decline of 0.29%. Yesterday, LME aluminum opened at $2,643/mt, hitting a high of $2,643.5/mt and a low of $2,600.5/mt, closing at $2,609/mt, down $38.5/mt, a decline of 1.45%.

Summary: On the macro front, as Trump vowed to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, further suppressing the performance of base metals. Multiple sources confirmed that Lebanon and Israel reached a ceasefire, but geopolitical uncertainties increased, and market risk aversion continued to rise. Domestically, the central bank and eight other departments jointly held a meeting to promote loans for technological innovation and transformation, proposing to tilt policies more towards private and small and medium-sized enterprises. Fundamentals side, aluminum costs fluctuated at highs, raising market concerns about production cuts at high-cost enterprises. Downstream demand rebounded slightly in the short term, stimulated by a rush to export. On the inventory side, multiple sources reported that railway shipments in Xinjiang have continued to improve, temporarily easing backlog pressure. With the concentrated arrival of goods in transit, despite continued outflows from warehouses over the past week, inventory buildup is expected this week. The off-season inventory turning point is expected to arrive soon, potentially easing the tight spot market in China. The support for aluminum prices from low inventory has gradually weakened. In the short term, the support logic of high costs and low inventory for domestic aluminum remains, but its support for aluminum prices has weakened. Coupled with the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum semis on medium and long-term aluminum demand, overall market sentiment is under pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the near term.