SMM Nickel Market Morning Comment (Nov 25)

Last week, refined nickel prices fluctuated upward, with spot prices ranging from 124,000 to 129,000 yuan/mt. Fundamentally, there were no significant structural changes compared to the previous week. Last week, on the supply side, domestic spot refined nickel supply tightened slightly in the short term but did not affect the overall surplus expectation of primary nickel. On the demand side, the weak demand from ternary cathode precursor, stainless steel, and alloy electroplating continued, making it difficult to positively impact prices.

From the perspective of various links in the nickel industry chain: In terms of nickel ore, the downward trend of Indonesian domestic trade laterite nickel ore persisted. For nickel sulphate, it remained in a state of weak supply and demand, with sentiment to stand firm on quotes still present, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the stalemate between upstream and downstream. In the NPI sector, market transaction prices hit new lows, and prices were under pressure due to the supply-demand mismatch. Regarding the fundamentals of refined nickel itself, last week, the spot market was affected by multiple factors. Many electrodeposited nickel enterprises directly sold products to end-users, coupled with the continuous increase in the export volume of domestically produced electrodeposited nickel, leading to a tightening of domestic spot market supply and a rise in spot premiums. However, downstream restocking was mainly based on rigid demand, and overall demand remained weak. In summary, refined nickel prices are expected to maintain sideways movement, and given the bearish fundamentals, refined nickel lacks upward momentum. The expected nickel price range for this week is 122,000-128,000 yuan/mt.