SMM Analysis: China's Primary Aluminum Net Imports Drop 27% YoY in October, with Further Declines Expected in November & December

[SMM Analysis: Net Imports of Primary Aluminum Decreased by 27% YoY in October, Import Losses Expanded in November, and Import Volume Expected to Decline]

SMM, November 21: SMM Brief Comment: In October 2024, the net imports of primary aluminum in China were approximately 159,000 mt, up 26.5% MoM, but down 26.5% YoY. From January to October, the total net imports of primary aluminum in China were about 1.734 million mt, up 63.7% YoY. However, since November, the import losses of primary aluminum in China have expanded. Additionally, on November 15, China announced the cancellation of the export tax rebate for aluminum semis effective December 1, which stimulated the price difference between domestic and overseas markets to widen. The import losses of primary aluminum in China exceeded 2,000 yuan/mt, leading to a decrease in the willingness of overseas suppliers to clear customs and ship to China. SMM expects that the net imports of primary aluminum in China will decline both YoY and MoM in November and December.