Domestic tin inventory buildup, rising expectations for Wa State production resumption, anticipated large Indonesian tin exports, and the strengthening US dollar following Trump's election have all impacted tin prices. As of 14:16 on November 13, SHFE tin fell by 4.4% to 246,110 yuan/mt, with a temporary monthly decline of 3.21% in November, surpassing October 3.02% decline. As of 14:18 on November 13, LME tin fell by 1.53% to $29,745/mt, with a temporary monthly decline of 4.7% in November, compared to October 7.39% decline.
Spot market
Tin spot prices fell by 4% in October and slightly declined in November.
Reflecting the decline in tin futures prices in October, tin spot prices also fell in October. According to SMM quotes, the average price of SMM 1# spot tin on July 31 was 253,500 yuan/mt, and on September 30, it was 264,100 yuan/mt, a decrease of 10,600 yuan/mt, with a decline of 4.01% in October. Entering November, under macro and fundamental pressures, tin spot prices have mostly fallen. As of November 13, the average price of SMM 1# spot tin was 249,200 yuan/mt.
Fundamentals
Production: Domestic tin ingot production rebounded significantly in October.
Production: According to the latest SMM assessment, China's refined tin production showed a significant recovery trend in October 2024. After a sharp decline in September due to raw material shortages and maintenance shutdowns at some smelters, the resumption of operations at some smelters led to a significant increase in tin ingot production in October. In Yunnan, although the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar remained low, it increased compared to September, alleviating some raw material pressure. Additionally, the resumption of normal operations at some smelters after maintenance provided a solid foundation for production recovery in Yunnan. Meanwhile, smelters in Jiangxi actively sought solutions to raw material supply challenges, such as expanding tin scrap procurement channels, to ensure stable production. In Inner Mongolia and Guangxi, smelters maintained stable production activities. However, in Anhui and other regions, increased raw material difficulties affected production, and future production may face challenges.
Inventory: SMM tin ingot social inventory in three regions increased by 392 mt WoW.
Domestic: According to an SMM survey, as of November 8 (last Friday), the total social inventory of SMM tin ingots in three regions was 10,465 mt, an increase of 392 mt WoW. Due to the fluctuating trend of SHFE tin last week, both buyers and sellers in the spot market were cautious. Downstream enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, with a few restocking as needed. In the spot tin ingot market, transactions were mediocre last week.
SHFE tin inventory: In the week of November 8, SHFE tin inventory slightly increased by 5.32% to 8,975 mt, reaching a new high in over a month.
LME inventory: As of October 31, LME tin inventory was 4,670 mt, compared to 4,660 mt on September 30, showing a slight increase in October. The latest LME tin inventory data on November 12 was 4,490 mt, a two-and-a-half-month low.
SMM outlook
Macro: Entering November, with the US election settled and the Trump 2.0 Era beginning, the market's cooling expectations for the US Fed's December interest rate cut have strengthened the US dollar, with the US dollar index rising to around 106. The stronger US dollar has pressured tin and other metals. The market is currently focused on the latest US inflation and employment data and speeches by US Fed officials to guide the Fed's interest rate path. Domestically, attention should be paid to China's October industrial added value above designated size YoY rate, November PMI data, and the State Council Information Office's press conference on the national economy.
Fundamentals: In terms of supply, SMM forecasts that national tin ingot production may slightly decline in November. Given the uncertainties in tin ore imports from Wa State and increasing raw material supply issues for smelters, market participants need to stay vigilant and closely monitor the latest developments in the raw material market to respond promptly to potential market fluctuations.
Demand: With the rise of emerging markets, tin demand is steadily growing, especially in high-tech fields such as electronics and new energy. Recent operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi show relative stability. According to SMM detailed survey data for the past week, as of last Friday, refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi showed stable operating rates. Most Yunnan smelters reported a slight decline in overall operating rates in October. Jiangxi smelters continued stable production last week, with scrap supply slightly easing compared to the tight tin concentrate supply. However, if tin prices fall in the future, scrap supply may decrease, potentially affecting the operating rates of Jiangxi smelters and leading to a downward trend.
In summary, SHFE tin is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. On one hand, the marginal improvement in domestic demand strengthens the support for tin prices. On the other hand, uncertainties in future inflation trends and global economic recovery create a mixed macro and fundamental outlook, leading to increased market caution and making it difficult for tin prices to form a long-term unilateral trend.
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