Iron Ore Market Experiences Volatile Session with Modest Price Gain

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Oct 25, 2024 16:55
Today, the iron ore market experienced a relatively strong volatile session, with the main contract I2501 closing at 769.5, marking a daily increase of 2.81%. Traders demonstrated moderate enthusiasm for shipments; however, steel mills adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach, resulting in a decline in purchasing intentions. The overall market trading atmosphere today was moderate. Transaction prices rose by 10-15 compared to yesterday. Iron ore prices exhibited weak volatility. Recently, steel mills' restocking pace has been slower than expected, with a slight decline in port discharge volumes. High port inventories have put pressure on ore prices. In the short term, it is challenging for iron ore prices to rise, and they are expected to continue their weak and volatile trend. ......

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
[SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰] ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์„ , ์‹ค์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์— ๋ชป ๋ฏธ์ณ
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰] ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์„ , ์‹ค์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์— ๋ชป ๋ฏธ์ณ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰] ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์„ , ์‹ค์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์— ๋ชป ๋ฏธ์ณ
[SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰] ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์„ , ์‹ค์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์— ๋ชป ๋ฏธ์ณ
SMM ํ†ต๊ณ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์ด๋ฒˆ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ์˜ ๊ณต์žฅ ์žฌ๊ณ ์™€ ์‚ฌํšŒ ์žฌ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ •๋„์˜ ์ฐจ์ด๋Š” ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์ด์žฌ๊ณ ๋Š” 807๋งŒ 4,000ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ, ์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 11๋งŒ 8,500ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œ(์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ -1.45%)ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ] ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ์†Œํญ ์†Œํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ] ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ์†Œํญ ์†Œํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ] ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ์†Œํญ ์†Œํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
[SMM ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ] ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ์†Œํญ ์†Œํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
SMM ์กฐ์‚ฌ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ด ์‚ฌํšŒ ์žฌ๊ณ ์˜ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„ ์†๋„๊ฐ€ ์†Œํญ ๋นจ๋ผ์กŒ๋‹ค. 2026๋…„ 9์›” 3์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค€, SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋Š” 545๋งŒ 8์ฒœ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 7๋งŒ 8,900ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œํ•ด 1.43% ์ค„์—ˆ๋‹ค.
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
ใ€์„ํƒ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ์— PTBA, ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ์ƒํ–ฅ; ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ 3010๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ•ด์•ผ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ณ„ํš ์ถฉ์กฑใ€‘
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
ใ€์„ํƒ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ์— PTBA, ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ์ƒํ–ฅ; ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ 3010๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ•ด์•ผ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ณ„ํš ์ถฉ์กฑใ€‘
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ใ€์„ํƒ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ์— PTBA, ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ์ƒํ–ฅ; ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ 3010๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ•ด์•ผ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ณ„ํš ์ถฉ์กฑใ€‘
ใ€์„ํƒ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ์— PTBA, ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ์ƒํ–ฅ; ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ 3010๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ•ด์•ผ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ณ„ํš ์ถฉ์กฑใ€‘
์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„ ๊ตญ์˜ ์„ํƒ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด PTBA๊ฐ€ 2026๋…„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋ฅผ 4,950๋งŒ ํ†ค์—์„œ 4,955๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์†Œํญ ์ƒํ–ฅ ์กฐ์ •ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ํŒ๋งค ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋Š” 4,951๋งŒ ํ†ค, ์šด์†ก ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋Š” 4,100๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์„ค์ •ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋Š” 5๋งŒ ํ†ค, ์•ฝ 0.1%๋งŒ ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜ ์กฐ์ • ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์— ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ์ง์ ‘์  ์˜๋ฏธ๋Š” ๋งค์šฐ ์ œํ•œ์ ์ด๋‹ค. ๋” ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ ์€ PTBA์˜ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์ด ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 10% ๊ฐ์†Œํ•œ 1,945๋งŒ ํ†ค์— ๊ทธ์ณค๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋ฅผ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ์— ์•ฝ 3,010๋งŒ ํ†ค์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰๋ณด๋‹ค ์•ฝ 54.8% ๋งŽ์€ ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด๋‹ค. ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ์•ฝ 2,841๋งŒ ํ†ค์„ ํŒ๋งคํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ, ์ด๋Š” ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ํŒ๋งค๋Ÿ‰๋ณด๋‹ค ์•ฝ 34.6% ๋งŽ์€ ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋กœ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ํšŒ๋ณต์ด ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ์šด์†ก ๋ฐ ํŒ๋งค ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰์œผ๋กœ ๋’ท๋ฐ›์นจ๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•จ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. PTBA์˜ 2๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์ง์ „ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 94% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๊ณ  ํŒ๋งค๋Ÿ‰์€ 8% ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜ ์šด์˜์ด ํšŒ๋ณต๋˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Œ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ํ‰๊ท  ํŒ๋งค๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ง์ „ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 14%, ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 10% ์ƒ์Šนํ•ด ๋งค์ถœ์€ 8% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ 22์กฐ 300์–ต ๋ฃจํ”ผ์•„๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๊ณ , ๋ชจํšŒ์‚ฌ ๊ท€์† ์ˆœ์ด์ต์€ 218% ๊ธ‰์ฆํ•œ 2์กฐ 6,500์–ต ๋ฃจํ”ผ์•„๋ฅผ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ฐ ํŒ๋งค ํ™•๋Œ€ ์œ ์ธ์ด ์ปค์กŒ๋‹ค. PTBA์˜ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜ ํŒ๋งค๋Š” ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 9% ๊ฐ์†Œํ•œ 1,077๋งŒ ํ†ค์ด์—ˆ๊ณ , ์ˆ˜์ถœ์€ 5% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ 1,033๋งŒ ํ†ค์„ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ถœ ํŒ๋งค๋„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ•  ๊ณ„ํš์ด๋‹ค.
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
Today, the iron ore market experienced a relatively strong volatile se - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)