Near Two-Year Historical Low! Aluminum Wire Export Volume in September Falls Below 10,000 mt [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, aluminum wire and cable exports in September 2024 were 9,300 mt, continuing to decline, down 29% MoM and 39.77% YoY. The total export value of aluminum wire and cable in September was $28.06 million, down 25.48% MoM and 38.42% YoY. Among these, the export volume of steel-core aluminum stranded wire and similar products was 4,650 mt, down 43.79% MoM; while the export volume of aluminum stranded wire and similar products reached 4,721 mt, down 4.36% MoM. (The above data is based on HS codes 76141000 and 76149000)

Regarding the export registration locations, a total of 21 provinces exported aluminum wire in September. The top three provinces in terms of export volume were Henan, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, with a combined export volume of 6,733 mt, accounting for 71.8% of the total exports. Henan, Jiangsu, and Beijing, which were major aluminum wire exporting provinces in August, saw a significant decline in export volume, reflecting that the shipment volume of aluminum wire export orders was not ideal.

Regarding export destinations, among the top 15 countries, many were in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia, mainly developing countries relying on local power grid construction, with overall consumption in major countries remaining relatively stable.

According to customs statistics, the export volume of aluminum wire from January to September was 137,300 mt, compared to 143,500 mt from January to September 2023, down 4.29% YoY. The export volume, which grew over 20% YoY at the beginning of the year, has now declined by 4.29% YoY, making the Q3 aluminum wire export volume overall unsatisfactory. As 2024 has already passed three quarters, looking back at the aluminum wire export volume in the first three quarters, the export volume in Q1 saw a significant YoY increase, boosting market confidence, and enterprises were optimistic about aluminum wire consumption. In Q2, domestic ultra-high voltage orders were delivered on schedule, significantly increasing the operating rate of domestic aluminum wire enterprises. However, limited by effective domestic capacity and reduced overseas pick-ups, the aluminum wire export volume began to show a downward trend. In Q3, due to the peak domestic demand for aluminum wire and the gradual approach to the bottleneck of effective operating capacity of domestic aluminum wire enterprises, the export volume of aluminum wire remained sluggish, falling below 10,000 mt in September, reaching a near two-year historical low.

From the perspective of product types, the export volume of domestic steel-core aluminum stranded wire in September was only 4,650 mt, with a significant MoM decline of 43.79%, while the export volume of other types of aluminum wire was 4,721 mt, with a relatively moderate MoM decline of 4.36%. The sharp decline in the export volume of steel-core aluminum stranded wire indicates two phenomena: first, domestic aluminum wire enterprises' production orders are saturated, mainly supplying domestic State Grid orders or related urgent orders; second, the demand for overseas power grid construction shipments has eased. According to SMM survey of top-tier domestic aluminum wire enterprises, after completing the delivery of ultra-high voltage orders by the end of October, leading enterprises' production schedules for export orders are relatively optimistic, and overseas order pick-ups are relatively concentrated. Enterprises are also increasing finished product inventories to alleviate subsequent shipment pressure. The export volume of aluminum wire in Q4 is expected to stabilize and recover, with the annual export volume expected to remain around 200,000 mt.