US September retail sales exceed expectations, potentially reducing the extent of US Fed interest rate cuts. Aluminum ingot maintains destocking pace [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary Oct 18]

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2412 contract opened at 20,565 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,635 yuan/mt and a low of 20,550 yuan/mt, closing at 20,565 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt or 0.17% from the previous close. On Thursday, LME aluminum opened at $2,581.5/mt, hitting a high of $2,598/mt and a low of $2,543/mt, closing at $2,557.5/mt, down $30/mt or 1.16%.

Summary: Macro front, the overnight US dollar index rose by 0.25%. Data on Thursday showed that US retail sales in September grew by 0.4%, slightly above expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was recorded at 241,000, lower than the market expectation of 260,000, enhancing market expectations that the US Fed will cut interest rates at a slower pace over the next year. Domestically, five departments held a press conference on Thursday, introducing a series of policies to continue stabilizing the real estate market. Fundamentals side, the growth rate of domestic aluminum supply slowed, alumina prices surged rapidly, and aluminum industry costs increased significantly. Demand side, downstream operating rates in October remained stable overall, with continued attention needed on end-use demand changes in construction and power sectors. Overall, the supply-demand mismatch in the aluminum market is not prominent, and a short-term fluctuating trend is expected to continue. Continuous attention should be paid to domestic consumption conditions and changes in international macro sentiment.