Silicon Wafer Prices Plunge to RMB 1 Amid Market Downturn, Firms Unite to Cut Output

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Oct 18, 2024 14:00
[SMM Analysis: Silicon Wafer Prices Drop to RMB 1, and Silicon Wafer Enterprises "Group Together" to Reduce Production] According to SMM, since the National Day holiday, domestic silicon wafers have embarked on a new round of downward channels. Many enterprises such as Zhonghuan, Gaojing, Yuze, and GCL have successively participated in the bidding process. After the holiday, with the collapse of the previous "price support" and the freezing point of market demand for 183mm silicon wafers, the price of silicon wafers dropped to RMB 1.03, and even some large orders were as low as RMB 1 per piece.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋‰ด์ €์ง€, ๋ฐœ์ฝ”๋‹ˆ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฒ•์•ˆ ํ†ต๊ณผ]
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋‰ด์ €์ง€, ๋ฐœ์ฝ”๋‹ˆ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฒ•์•ˆ ํ†ต๊ณผ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋‰ด์ €์ง€, ๋ฐœ์ฝ”๋‹ˆ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฒ•์•ˆ ํ†ต๊ณผ]
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋‰ด์ €์ง€, ๋ฐœ์ฝ”๋‹ˆ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฒ•์•ˆ ํ†ต๊ณผ]
๋‰ด์ €์ง€์ฃผ๊ฐ€ โ€˜๊ฐ€๋“  ์Šคํ…Œ์ดํŠธ ๋ฐœ์ฝ”๋‹ˆ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘๋ฒ•โ€™์„ ์ œ์ •ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ํ”Œ๋Ÿฌ๊ทธ์ธ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ๋ช…์‹œ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ—ˆ์šฉํ•œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‚ด 9๋ฒˆ์งธ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ๋ฒ•์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ํ”Œ๋Ÿฌ๊ทธ์ธ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๊ธฐ๊ธฐ๋Š” ํ‘œ์ค€ 120V ์ฝ˜์„ผํŠธ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ฃผํƒ์˜ ๊ธฐ์กด ์ „๊ธฐ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์— ์—ฐ๊ฒฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์†Œ๋น„์ž๋Š” ์ƒํ˜ธ์ ‘์† ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์—†์ด ์ด ์ถœ๋ ฅ 1,200W ์ดํ•˜์˜ ํœด๋Œ€์šฉ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๊ธฐ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, 400W ์ดํ•˜ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์€ ๊ฑด๋ฌผ ๋ฐฐ์„ ์ด๋‚˜ ์ „๊ธฐ ํŒจ๋„ ๋ณ€๊ฒฝ ์š”๊ฑด์ด ๋ฉด์ œ๋˜์ง€๋งŒ ์•ˆ์ „ ๊ธฐ์ค€์€ ์ถฉ์กฑํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์ด ๋ฒ•์€ ์ง‘์ฃผ์ธ, ์ฃผํƒ์†Œ์œ ์žํ˜‘ํšŒ, ์ง€๋ฐฉ์ž์น˜๋‹จ์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ๊ธˆ์ง€ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์‚ฌ์šฉ ํ—ˆ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ์š”๊ตฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ง‰๋Š”๋‹ค. ์ด ๋ฒ•์€ 2027๋…„ 3์›” 1์ผ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹œํ–‰๋œ๋‹ค.
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: 8์›” ํฌ๋ฅดํˆฌ๊ฐˆ์—์„œ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฐœ์ „๋Ÿ‰์ด ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ก]
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: 8์›” ํฌ๋ฅดํˆฌ๊ฐˆ์—์„œ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฐœ์ „๋Ÿ‰์ด ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ก]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: 8์›” ํฌ๋ฅดํˆฌ๊ฐˆ์—์„œ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฐœ์ „๋Ÿ‰์ด ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ก]
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: 8์›” ํฌ๋ฅดํˆฌ๊ฐˆ์—์„œ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฐœ์ „๋Ÿ‰์ด ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ก]
ํฌ๋ฅดํˆฌ๊ฐˆ์˜ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฐœ์ „๋Ÿ‰์€ 8์›”์— ์•ฝ 3.85GW๋กœ ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ์ง€์†์ ์ธ ์„ค๋น„์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์— ํž˜์ž…์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋‹ค. 2025๋…„ 12์›”๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2026๋…„ 5์›” ์‚ฌ์ด์— 372MW์˜ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ์„ค๋น„๊ฐ€ ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋ˆ„์  ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์•ฝ 7.3GW์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ PV๋Š” 7์›”์— ์ฒ˜์Œ์œผ๋กœ ํฌ๋ฅดํˆฌ๊ฐˆ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์ „๋ ฅ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์›์ด ๋˜์–ด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์†Œ๋น„๋Ÿ‰์˜ 19%๋ฅผ ๋‹ด๋‹นํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ˆ˜๋ ฅ(16%)๊ณผ ํ’๋ ฅ(13%)์„ ์•ž์งˆ๋ €๋‹ค. 8์›”์—๋Š” ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๊ฐ€ ์†Œ๋น„๋Ÿ‰์˜ 52%๋ฅผ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜ฌํ•ด ์ฒซ 8๊ฐœ์›” ๋™์•ˆ ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋Š” ํฌ๋ฅดํˆฌ๊ฐˆ ์ „๋ ฅ ์†Œ๋น„๋Ÿ‰์˜ 66%๋ฅผ ์ถฉ๋‹นํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ˆ˜๋ ฅ 25%, ํ’๋ ฅ 23%, ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ 13%๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ŠคํŽ˜์ธ๊ณผ์˜ ์ƒํ˜ธ์—ฐ๊ณ„ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ฐ•ํ™”์— ํž˜์ž…์–ด ์ˆœ์ „๋ ฅ ์ˆ˜์ž…๋Ÿ‰๋„ 5.2GW๋ฅผ ๋„˜์–ด์„œ๋ฉฐ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[์†”๋ผ: ๋ธŒ๋ผ์งˆ ์ƒ์›, ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๊ณผ ์—ฐ๊ณ„ํ•œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์„ธ์ œ ํ˜œํƒ ์Šน์ธ]
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[์†”๋ผ: ๋ธŒ๋ผ์งˆ ์ƒ์›, ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๊ณผ ์—ฐ๊ณ„ํ•œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์„ธ์ œ ํ˜œํƒ ์Šน์ธ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[์†”๋ผ: ๋ธŒ๋ผ์งˆ ์ƒ์›, ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๊ณผ ์—ฐ๊ณ„ํ•œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์„ธ์ œ ํ˜œํƒ ์Šน์ธ]
[์†”๋ผ: ๋ธŒ๋ผ์งˆ ์ƒ์›, ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๊ณผ ์—ฐ๊ณ„ํ•œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์„ธ์ œ ํ˜œํƒ ์Šน์ธ]
๋ธŒ๋ผ์งˆ ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ ์ƒ์›์ด ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ํŠน๋ณ„ ์กฐ์„ธ ์ œ๋„์ธ Redata๋ฅผ ์‹ ์„คํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฒ•์•ˆ 278/2026์„ ์Šน์ธํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ๋ฒ•์•ˆ์€ ์žฅ๋น„ ๋ฐ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ž… ๊ด€์„ธ, IPI, PIS/Cofins ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ์„ธ๋ฅผ 5๋…„๊ฐ„ ๋ฉด์ œํ•œ๋‹ค. ํ˜œํƒ์„ ๋ฐ›๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์กฐ๊ฑด ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋กœ, ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ๋Š” ๊ณ„์•ฝ๋œ ์ „์ฒด ์ „๋ ฅ ์ˆ˜์š”๋ฅผ ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋˜๋Š” ์ €๋ฐฐ์ถœ ์ „์›์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•œ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์ด๋‚˜ ์ž๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ „์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ถฉ์กฑํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. 2021๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2024๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฐœ์ „ ์‚ฌ์—…์ž์™€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ๊ฐ„์— ์ด 330MW, ์•ฝ 77์–ต ํ—ค์•Œ(14์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ) ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ณ„์•ฝ 11๊ฑด์ด ์ฒด๊ฒฐ๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๋ธŒ๋ผ์งˆ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์‹œ์žฅ์ด ์„ฑ์žฅํ•จ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ œ๋„๋Š” ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ยทํ’๋ ฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์™€ PPA ์ˆ˜์š”๋ฅผ ๋”์šฑ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๋œ๋‹ค. ์ด ๋ฒ•์•ˆ์€ ์ด์ œ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น ์žฌ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ์†ก๋ถ€๋œ๋‹ค.
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM Analysis: Silicon Wafer Prices Drop to RMB 1, and Silicon Wafer E - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)