Zinc Ingot Social Inventory Increases, SHFE Zinc Opens Lower and Fluctuates [SMM Morning Comment Oct 15]

Waller: The US Fed should be more cautious about interest rate cuts than at the September meeting; OPEC lowers global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next for the third consecutive month; Netanyahu: Israel will target Iran's military objectives, not nuclear or oil targets; Iran: If Israel's response is limited, this round of confrontation between the two countries is considered over; China's broad money balance grew 6.8% YoY; Xinhua Decoding: The scale of fiscal incremental policy may exceed 2.2 trillion yuan; The photovoltaic industry reached a consensus on "strengthening industry self-discipline to prevent cut-throat competition"; The Eastern Theater Command successfully completed the "Joint Sword-2024B" exercise.

Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,120/mt, initially fluctuating to a high of $3,142/mt, then slowly declining to a low of $3,040/mt during the night session, and slightly rebounding to near the daily average line at the close, ending down at $3,094.5/mt, a decrease of $61.5/mt, or 1.95%. Trading volume increased to 13,671 lots, and open interest rose by 960 lots to 263,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 5-day moving average providing support. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,375 mt to 240,625 mt, a drop of 0.57%. The previously announced stimulus policy from China provided limited support to market confidence, with demand concerns persisting, and the US dollar index rising, causing LME zinc to decline.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2411 contract opened at 25,035 yuan/mt, fluctuating around the daily average line after the opening, dipping to 24,890 yuan/mt, then slightly rising above the daily average line, peaking at 25,145 yuan/mt at the close, ending down at 25,135 yuan/mt, a decrease of 200 yuan/mt, or 0.79%. Trading volume decreased to 88,395 lots, and open interest decreased by 2,265 lots to 115,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with the 20-day moving average providing support. Influenced by overseas market trends, SHFE zinc opened lower, coupled with poor spot consumption performance at previous high zinc prices. Zinc ingot inventory increased WoW on Monday, and market concerns about future consumption persist, causing SHFE zinc to decline.