2024 National Day Holiday Copper Processing Enterprises Holiday Survey - Copper Billet [SMM Analysis]

According to an SMM survey of 12 small, medium, and large copper billet enterprises with an annual capacity of 1.36 million mt, their holiday arrangements are as follows. Except for a few enterprises, most small and medium-sized factories will have holidays of about 3-5 days, almost the same as in 2023. Large enterprises prefer staggered breaks, maintaining normal production in workshops.

Demand side, September and October are traditionally peak demand seasons for the copper billet market. In previous years, downstream stocking before the National Day was active. However, due to the recent frequent release of favorable domestic policies, market optimism has surged, and copper prices have rapidly increased. The most-traded SHFE copper contract has risen above 78,000 yuan/mt, significantly dampening downstream stocking enthusiasm. Most copper billet enterprises report that while there is order release downstream, the high copper prices have led to a wait-and-see attitude, and downstream waited for suitable ordering opportunities. Overall, due to copper prices, downstream stocking of copper billets was lower than in 2023.

Looking ahead, according to SMM, some copper billet enterprises expect copper prices to fall after the holiday. Customers who were hesitant due to high pre-holiday copper prices may place orders, but the price level will still play a decisive role in post-holiday consumption. October, a traditional peak season for copper billet consumption, is expected to see a gradual recovery in order volume, with a 5% increase MoM from September, but still a 10% YoY decline compared to last year.