Copper cathode rod orders declined this week, what is the outlook for the market? [SMM Copper Downstream Weekly Survey]

This week, SMM surveyed the production and sales of major medium and large domestic copper rod makers. The overall operating rate was 81.72%, up 3.57 percentage points WoW, but 1.91 percentage points lower than expected (surveyed enterprises: 21, capacity: 7.83 million mt).

From September 6 to 12, the weekly operating rate of major domestic copper cathode rod makers was 81.72%, up 3.57 percentage points WoW. The primary reason was the release of a large number of previous orders which led to ample production planning. However, due to the rise in copper prices this week, the actual order volume for copper cathode rods was weaker than last week. Some large enterprises' operating rates were lower than expected, causing the overall rate to be 1.91 percentage points below expectations.

Inventory-wise, the raw material inventory of major domestic copper cathode rod makers remained stable with a slight increase of 0.26%, recording 38,300 mt. Finished product inventories decreased by 8.83% WoW to 57,800 mt due to steady downstream pickup.

Looking ahead, due to planned holidays by some enterprises for the Mid-Autumn Festival, the operating rate is expected to slightly decline to 80.86%. Notably, some enterprises stated that the previous power grid tenders are gradually releasing demand. Coupled with optimistic expectations for the downstream stocking before the National Day holiday, the expected operating rate for next week (September 13 to 19) remains high and is not significantly affected by the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. However, caution is needed as most copper cathode rod enterprises believe that if copper prices continue to rise, consumption will still face pressure, and post-holiday operating rates may fall below expectations.