Overnight aluminum prices fluctuated rangebound, and spot market discounts narrowed [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2410 contract opened at 19,500 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,560 yuan/mt, a low of 19,360 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,410 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.46%. On Tuesday, LME aluminum opened at $2,424/mt, with a high of $2,428.5/mt, a low of $2,394/mt, and closed at $2,415.5/mt, down $8.5/mt, a decrease of 0.35%.

Summary: On the macro side, U.S. economic data fell short of previous expectations but has not yet strongly impacted rate cut expectations. The hot war is also escalating. On the fundamentals side, recent power rationing and other disturbances have not materially affected aluminum production, with supply remaining relatively stable. The demand side is entering the traditional peak season, with consumption gradually recovering, and the destocking turning point may have appeared. It is expected that aluminum prices will still have upside potential in the short term, and attention should still be paid to macro changes and the sustainability of downstream aluminum consumption.