Due to power shortages, overseas aluminium supply decreased, and the EU imposes anti-subsidy duties on Chinese NEVs [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment].

SMM, Aug 21: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2410 contract opened at 19,840 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 19,855 yuan/mt and a low of 19,665 yuan/mt, closing at 19,695 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt or 0.1%. Overnight, LME 3M aluminum opened at $2,430/mt, with a high of $2,506/mt and a low of $2,418/mt, closing at $2,476/mt, up $30.5/mt or 1.25%.
Macro side, overseas investment banks are still trading on rate cut expectations, and the US dollar index continues to weaken. Fundamentals side, due to power shortages in New Zealand, overseas aluminium supply has decreased; domestic aluminium supply remains stable at high level. Downstream, industrial extrusion orders have picked up, leading to a slight increase in the operating rate of leading extrusion companies. Meanwhile, in the traditional peak season and under domestic economic stimulus policies, downstream consumption is expected to improve. Recently, external macro sentiment has been friendly, and the supply-demand mismatch has somewhat eased. SMM expects short-term aluminum prices to show a rebound and fluctuate. Continued attention is needed on aluminum consumption and aluminum social inventory changes.