๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Aug 11, 2024 20:32
[SMM Analysis] Since the first half of this year, domestic spot premiums have been under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and mediocre consumption at the beginning of the year. As copper prices soared, SHFE copper near-month and far-month contracts showed a significant Contango structure. Affected by this, spot premiums in the first half of the year have shown periodic fluctuations, gradually moving closer to premiums after the contract month changes, and only showing slight premiums before delivery. However, since the continuous destocking of Shanghai's social inventory in June, this cycle has shown a tendency to be broken. The following is a detailed analysis.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
ACG ๊ฒŒ๋””ํฌํ…ŒํŽ˜ ํ™ฉํ™”๋ฌผ ํ™•์žฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ, ์ฒซ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์•„์—ฐ ์ •๊ด‘ ์ƒ์‚ฐ; 2026๋…„ ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„์ „ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
4์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
ACG ๊ฒŒ๋””ํฌํ…ŒํŽ˜ ํ™ฉํ™”๋ฌผ ํ™•์žฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ, ์ฒซ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์•„์—ฐ ์ •๊ด‘ ์ƒ์‚ฐ; 2026๋…„ ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„์ „ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ACG ๊ฒŒ๋””ํฌํ…ŒํŽ˜ ํ™ฉํ™”๋ฌผ ํ™•์žฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ, ์ฒซ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์•„์—ฐ ์ •๊ด‘ ์ƒ์‚ฐ; 2026๋…„ ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„์ „ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
ACG ๊ฒŒ๋””ํฌํ…ŒํŽ˜ ํ™ฉํ™”๋ฌผ ํ™•์žฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ, ์ฒซ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์•„์—ฐ ์ •๊ด‘ ์ƒ์‚ฐ; 2026๋…„ ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„์ „ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
ACG Metals๋Š” 9์›” 1์ผ ํŠ€๋ฅดํ‚ค์˜ˆ ์†Œ์žฌ Gediktepe ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์—์„œ 8์›” 31์ผ ์ฒซ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ •๊ด‘์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ฆ์‚ฐ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์— ๋Œ์ž…ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ ์ง„์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋Š˜๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ”Œ๋žœํŠธ ์„ฑ๋Šฅ์„ ์ตœ์ ํ™”ํ•˜์—ฌ 2026๋…„ ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„์ „ ๊ฐ€๋™์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. Gediktepe์˜ ์ •์ƒ ์ƒํƒœ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋Š” ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํ™˜์‚ฐ 2๋งŒ~2๋งŒ 5์ฒœ ํ†ค์ด๋‹ค. ์ „์ฒด ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋ฌธ์—๋Š” ํ•ด๋‹น ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์ด 2026๋…„ 8์›” ์ฒซ ์•„์—ฐ ์ •๊ด‘์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋‚ด์šฉ๋„ ํฌํ•จ๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ๊ตฌ์ฒด์ ์ธ ๋‚ ์งœ์™€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ ๊ณต๊ฐœ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค. SMM์€ 2026๋…„ ํ•ด๋‹น ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์˜ ์•„์—ฐ ์ •๊ด‘ ๋‚ด ์•„์—ฐ ํ•จ์œ ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์•ฝ 1๋งŒ~1๋งŒ 5์ฒœ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ถ”์ •ํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
4์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ SMM ๋ถ„์„ ] 19๊ฐœ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ์˜ 2026๋…„ ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ํ•œ๋ˆˆ์— ๋ณด๊ธฐ
4์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ SMM ๋ถ„์„ ] 19๊ฐœ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ์˜ 2026๋…„ ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ํ•œ๋ˆˆ์— ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[ SMM ๋ถ„์„ ] 19๊ฐœ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ์˜ 2026๋…„ ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ํ•œ๋ˆˆ์— ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[ SMM ๋ถ„์„ ] 19๊ฐœ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ์˜ 2026๋…„ ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ํ•œ๋ˆˆ์— ๋ณด๊ธฐ
4์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
MMG, ๋ณด์ธ ์™€๋‚˜ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ ํ™•์žฅ ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์žฅ๋น„ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ
6์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
MMG, ๋ณด์ธ ์™€๋‚˜ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ ํ™•์žฅ ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์žฅ๋น„ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
MMG, ๋ณด์ธ ์™€๋‚˜ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ ํ™•์žฅ ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์žฅ๋น„ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ
MMG, ๋ณด์ธ ์™€๋‚˜ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ ํ™•์žฅ ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์žฅ๋น„ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ
์—ํ”ผ๋ก์ด MMG ๋ฆฌ๋ฏธํ‹ฐ๋“œ์™€ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์—…์ฒด์ธ ์ฐจ์ด๋‚˜ ํ™”์˜ˆ, 23MCC๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ณด์ธ ์™€๋‚˜ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ํ™•์žฅ์„ ์ง€์›ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ง€ํ•˜ ์ฑ„๊ตด ์žฅ๋น„ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์„ ์•ฝ 6์–ต 1์ฒœ๋งŒ ํฌ๋กœ๋‚˜(6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ) ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์ฃผํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์—๋Š” ๊ฐฑ๋„ ๊ตด์ฐฉ ๋“œ๋ฆด, ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋“œ๋ฆด, ์ผ€์ด๋ธ” ๋ณผํŒ… ์žฅ๋น„, ๋กœ๋”, ์ง€ํ•˜ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ํŠธ๋Ÿญ๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์›๊ฒฉ ์ œ์–ด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ, ์˜ˆ๋น„ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ, ๊ต์œก, ํ˜„์žฅ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์ง€์›์ด ํฌํ•จ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ด ์žฅ๋น„๋Š” MMG๊ฐ€ ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ค‘์ธ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ ํ™•์žฅ์„ ์ง€์›ํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ •๊ด‘ ๋‚ด ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ธˆ์† ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ์•ฝ 6๋งŒ ํ†ค์—์„œ 13๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ๋Š˜๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋‹ค. ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์—๋Š” ์—ฐ์‚ฐ 450๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ ๊ณต์žฅ ๊ฑด์„ค์ด ํฌํ•จ๋˜์–ด ์ด ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ 800๋งŒ ํ†ค ์ด์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ์–ด์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋ฉฐ, Zone 5 North, Mango, Zeta North-East ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋„ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ง„ํ–‰๋œ๋‹ค. ํ™•์žฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์˜ ์ฒซ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ •๊ด‘ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์€ 2028๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋œ๋‹ค. ์—ํ”ผ๋ก์€ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ง€ํ•˜ ์žฅ๋น„์˜ ์ธ๋„๊ฐ€ 2026๋…„ 4๋ถ„๊ธฐ์— ์‹œ์ž‘๋˜์–ด 2028๋…„ 2๋ถ„๊ธฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ํ™•์žฅ ์ผ์ •๊ณผ ๋Œ€์ฒด๋กœ ์ผ์น˜ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ์ฃผ๋ฌธ๋œ ์žฅ๋น„์—๋Š” ๋ถ€๋จธ ๊ฐฑ๋„ ๊ตด์ฐฉ ๋“œ๋ฆด, ์‹ฌ๋ฐ” ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋“œ๋ฆด, ์ผ€์ด๋ธ”ํ… ์ผ€์ด๋ธ” ๋ณผํŒ… ์žฅ๋น„, ์Šค์ฟฑํŠธ๋žจ ๋กœ๋”, ๋งˆ์ธํŠธ๋Ÿญ ์ง€ํ•˜ ํŠธ๋Ÿญ์ด ํฌํ•จ๋˜๋ฉฐ, ์ผ๋ถ€ ์žฅ๋น„๋Š” ์ž๋™ํ™” ๋ฐ ์›๊ฒฉ ์ œ์–ด ์šด์ „์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋„๋ก ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์žฅ๋น„ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์€ ์ด๋ฏธ ์Šน์ธ๋œ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ ํ™•์žฅ์˜ ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‹คํ–‰ ์ด์ •ํ‘œ๋กœ, ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์กฐ๋‹ฌ์ด ์ง„ํ–‰๋˜๊ณ  ์žฅ๋น„ ์ธ๋„๊ฐ€ 2028๋…„ 2๋ถ„๊ธฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ์˜ˆ์ •๋œ ๊ฐ€์šด๋ฐ, ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” MMG๊ฐ€ ๊ณ„ํšํ•œ ์ •๊ด‘ ๋‚ด ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 13๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋‹ฌ์„ฑ์„ ํ–ฅํ•ด ๊ณ„์† ์ง„์ „๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ํ™•์žฅ์€ ๋ณด์ธ ์™€๋‚˜ ์นผ๋ผํ•˜๋ฆฌ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๋ฒจํŠธ์—์„œ ์ฝ”์—๋งˆ์นด์šฐ์˜ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๋Œ€ํญ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ๊ณ„ํš์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค.
6์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM Analysis] Since the first half of this year, domestic spot premiu - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)