In June, the proportion of non-registered copper cathode imports in China exceeded 70%! [SMM Analysis]

SMM compiled import data by country. In H1, China imported a total of 1.0995 million mt from major non-registered copper cathode producing countries, accounting for 61.06% of the total.

In Q2, due to the surge in copper prices and the stronger performance of LME copper, SHFE copper imports continued to show losses. Despite the high premiums in Europe and the US, China's copper cathode imports did not decrease.

In H1, the proportion of copper cathode imports from Congo accounted for 38.27% of the total. In 2024, Chinese producers signed numerous long-term contracts with suppliers from Congo. With the ramp-up of smelters and improvement in power issues in the region, China's imports of copper cathode from Congo gradually increased after February. Considering the logistics factors in the region, there might have been concentrated arrivals in June, resulting in the proportion of copper cathode imports from Congo reaching 50% of the total. Changes in other countries were not significant. However, due to the 11.9% MoM decrease in total copper cathode imports in June compared to May, the proportion of non-registered imports also significantly increased.

Looking ahead, there are more opportunities for import profits in H2 than in H1. However, considering the expected interest rate cuts in Europe and the US in H2 and the anticipated production cuts by Chinese smelters, copper prices may rebound again, potentially enlarging import losses. It is expected that the overall imports in H2 will remain balanced compared to H1, but the proportion of non-registered imports may continue to rise, with the annual total import proportion possibly exceeding 60%.