Supply Concerns Revisited, Copper Prices Rebound Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,780/mt, rose slightly to a session high of $9,815.5/mt at the beginning, then dropped slightly to a session low of $9,742/mt during the day. By the end of the trading session, it rebounded and closed at $9,785/mt, up 0.68%, with a trading volume of 16,000 lots and open interest of 319,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract (2407) opened at ¥79,270/mt, dropped slightly to a session low of ¥78,940/mt at the beginning, then rose to a session high of ¥79,490/mt by the end of the trading session, and finally closed at ¥79,400/mt, up 1.19%, with a trading volume of 23,000 lots and open interest of 149,000 lots. On the macro front, according to external news on June 19, the latest report from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics showed that in April 2024, the global refined copper supply shortage was 120,900 mt due to a decline in copper mine production from Anglo American. The market focus has once again shifted to supply shortages, leading to a rebound in copper prices overnight. On the fundamentals side, after the contract rollover, the premium fell back again, downstream consumption did not show significant improvement, and warrant trading also occupied some spot demand. Overall, although concerns about copper ore shortages have re-emerged, the continuous increase in copper stocks indicates weak demand, and copper prices may lack the momentum to continue rising. Today, attention will be on the interest rate decisions from China and the UK, as well as US labor data.