Domestic alumina market maintains a tight balance

During the week ending October 19, some Shandong alumina refinery temporarily limited roasting due to air pollution warning but have since resumed production. As of October 19, the northern market saw active spot trading with ten total transactions: (1) Two in Shanxi (20,000 mt total, ex-factory price of 3,010 yuan/mt), (2) Four in Henan (28,000 mt total, ex-factory prices from 2,980 to 3,070 yuan/mt), (3) And four in Shandong (15,000 mt total, ex-factory prices from 2,990 to 3,020 yuan/mt). In the southwest region, some alumina refineries are undergoing roasting equipment maintenance, and certain Guangxi refineries are reducing production due to ore shortages. By end of October, a major southwest alumina refinery's daily roasting output of 12,000-13,000 mt will be affected by a four-day natural gas pipeline maintenance, slightly decreasing alumina supply. However, downstream demand is expected to remain steady. Sellers, reluctant to sell, are keeping prices firm. SMM expects a tight supply-demand balance in the southwest alumina market during this period. As of the week ending October 19, seven transactions were recorded: one in Guangxi (5,000 mt at 3,040 yuan/mt), destined for an aluminium smelter in Guangxi, and six in Guizhou (44,000 mt total, ex-factory prices between 2,965 and 2,980 yuan/mt).

During the week ending October 19, northern roasting production affected by environmental measures has largely resumed, with minimal impact on monthly output. Meanwhile, a surge in initial alumina futures prices led to increased futures and spot trading activities, pushing up prices of delivery brand alumina. Dominant spot transactions were driven by rigid downstream procurement needs. SMM forecasts a continued tight supply-demand balance in China's alumina market in the short term, with strong price fluctuations. Monitoring alumina production dynamics and downstream market price concerns is crucial.