SMM Lead Market Comment And Forecast

SHANGHAI, Jul 10 (SMM) –

Last Friday, LME Lead opened at $2050 per ton, stabilizing sideways during the Asian session; Entering the European period, it lightly hit a high of $2,064.5 per ton, then rose and fell back. Under pressure, it fell as low as $2,030 per ton. Due to the lower than expected increase in non farm employment in the United States after the June quarter adjustment, the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again this year has decreased, and the US dollar has plunged and LME lead has rebounded from the deep V, ending at $2,058.5 per ton, up 0.34%. Its holdings increased by 677 to 125,000 compared to the previous trading day, and trading volume increased by 431 to 7,095.

Last Friday evening, the main 2308 contract of Shanghai Lead jumped short and opened at 15,490 yuan/ton, hitting a low of 15,425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the trading session. Later, due to the upward trend of Lun Lead, it was lifted to 15500 yuan/ton and finally closed at 15,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23%. Its holdings decreased by 2956 to 95,435 compared to the previous trading day, and trading volume decreased by 7,855 to 32,086.

Today's lead price forecast:

Macroscopically, in the morning, we focused on China's announcement of the annual CPI rate in June, and in the evening, we focused on two hawkish officials of the Federal Reserve: the 2025 FOMC Voting Committee, Mestes, chairman of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, and Daly, the 2024 FOMC Voting Committee, chairman of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, delivering speeches. On the spot basis, the supply of primary lead and recycled lead has increased simultaneously in July, and the pressure on lead ingot accumulation has increased. At the same time, next week is the week before the delivery of the Shanghai Lead 2307 contract. We need to focus on the explicit inventory realization brought about by the delivery and relocation. On the other hand, the pre increase in lead supply exacerbates the tight supply pattern of raw materials such as waste batteries, making their prices easy to rise but difficult to fall. The cost increase factor may limit the space for lead prices to fall.

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