Deutsche Bank: RMB Cross-Border Payments to Increase 15% in 2023

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Apr 25, 2023 15:06
Liu Linan, head of macro strategy for Greater China at Deutsche Bank, pointed out in a January research report that with the wide application of RMB in trade settlement and the access to China's financial market, the degree of liberalisation of China's financial market access has increased, and the economic and trade cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road and RCEP partner countries has deepened.

SHANGHAI, Apr 25 - Liu Linan, head of macro strategy for Greater China at Deutsche Bank, pointed out in a January research report that with the wide application of RMB in trade settlement and the access to China's financial market, the degree of liberalisation of China's financial market access has increased, and the economic and trade cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road and RCEP partner countries has deepened.

In this scenario, the internationalisation of the RMB will be steadily promoted in the next few years.

It is estimated that the RMB cross-border payment scale will increase by 15% in 2023. In the next five years, the RMB settlement volume is expected to increase by an average of 10-15% per year.

 

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
ํƒ€๋ฆฌ์‚ฌ, ์ง๋ฐ”๋ธŒ์›จ ์นด๋กœ ํ”Œ๋ž˜ํ‹ฐ๋„˜ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์ถ”์ง„ ์œ„ํ•ด 3์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ฑ„๊ถŒ ๊ฒ€ํ† 
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ํƒ€๋ฆฌ์‚ฌ, ์ง๋ฐ”๋ธŒ์›จ ์นด๋กœ ํ”Œ๋ž˜ํ‹ฐ๋„˜ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์ถ”์ง„ ์œ„ํ•ด 3์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ฑ„๊ถŒ ๊ฒ€ํ† 
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ํƒ€๋ฆฌ์‚ฌ, ์ง๋ฐ”๋ธŒ์›จ ์นด๋กœ ํ”Œ๋ž˜ํ‹ฐ๋„˜ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์ถ”์ง„ ์œ„ํ•ด 3์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ฑ„๊ถŒ ๊ฒ€ํ† 
ํƒ€๋ฆฌ์‚ฌ, ์ง๋ฐ”๋ธŒ์›จ ์นด๋กœ ํ”Œ๋ž˜ํ‹ฐ๋„˜ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์ถ”์ง„ ์œ„ํ•ด 3์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ฑ„๊ถŒ ๊ฒ€ํ† 
[SMM Flash] ํƒ€๋ฆฌ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ง๋ฐ”๋ธŒ์›จ ์นด๋กœ ํ”Œ๋ž˜ํ‹ฐ๋„˜ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ์ง€์›ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ๋ฐœํ–‰ ๊ทœ๋ชจ 3์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์˜ 5๋…„ ๋งŒ๊ธฐ ์„ ์ˆœ์œ„ ๋‹ด๋ณด๋ถ€ ์ฑ„๊ถŒ ๋ฐœํ–‰์„ ๊ฒ€ํ†  ์ค‘์ด๋‹ค. ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” 9์›” 2์ผ DNB ์นด๋„ค๊ธฐ์™€ HSBC๊ฐ€ ๊ณต๋™ ์ฃผ๊ด€์‚ฌ๋กœ, ์••์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ณต๋™ ๊ฐ„์‚ฌ๋กœ ์„ ์ž„๋˜์–ด ๊ณ ์ • ์ˆ˜์ต ํˆฌ์ž์ž ๋ฏธํŒ…์„ ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์‹œ์žฅ ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ฑ„๊ถŒ ๋ฐœํ–‰์ด ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์งˆ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ์ž๊ธˆ์€ ์ฃผ๋กœ ์นด๋กœ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์˜ ์ž๋ณธ ์ง€์ถœ๊ณผ ์ผ๋ฐ˜ ๊ธฐ์—… ๋ชฉ์ ์— ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋‹ค. ์นด๋กœ๋Š” ์ง๋ฐ”๋ธŒ์›จ ๊ทธ๋ ˆ์ดํŠธ ๋‹ค์ดํฌ์—์„œ ๊ฑด์„ค ์ค‘์ธ ๋…ธ์ฒœ PGM ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋กœ, ํƒ€๋ฆฌ์‚ฌ์˜ ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด๊ณตํ™”๊ตญ ์™ธ PGM ์ƒ์‚ฐ ํ™•๋Œ€ ์ „๋žต์˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์„ ์ด๋ฃฌ๋‹ค. ํƒ€๋ฆฌ์‚ฌ๋Š” ํƒ์‚ฌ, ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ๊ณ„ํš, ์ธํ”„๋ผ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์ด ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋˜๊ณ  ์„ ๊ด‘์žฅ ๊ฑด์„ค์ด ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ค‘์ธ ๋“ฑ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ์ง„์ฒ™๋œ ์ƒํƒœ๋ผ๊ณ  ์„ค๋ช…ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ฑ„๊ถŒ ๋ฐœํ–‰์ด ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์˜ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ž๊ธˆ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ์ด์ •ํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ถ”๊ฐ€์ ์ธ ์ง๋ฐ”๋ธŒ์›จ PGM ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ๋‘˜๋Ÿฌ์‹ผ ์ž๊ธˆ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ์„ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๋œ๋‹ค.
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์ž„ํ”Œ๋ž์ธ , PGM ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋งค์ถœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋ฉฐ 2026 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ
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์ž„ํ”Œ๋ž์ธ , PGM ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋งค์ถœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋ฉฐ 2026 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์ž„ํ”Œ๋ž์ธ , PGM ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋งค์ถœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋ฉฐ 2026 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ
์ž„ํ”Œ๋ž์ธ , PGM ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋งค์ถœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋ฉฐ 2026 ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ
[SMM ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ] ์ž„ํŒ”๋ผ ํ”Œ๋ž˜ํ‹ฐ๋„˜ ํ™€๋”ฉ์Šค(Implats)๋Š” PGM ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน๊ณผ ๊ฒฌ์กฐํ•œ ์šด์˜ ์‹ค์ ์— ํž˜์ž…์–ด 2026๋…„ 6์›” ๋งˆ๊ฐ ํšŒ๊ณ„์—ฐ๋„์— ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ์žฌ๋ฌด ํšŒ๋ณต์„ ๋ณด๊ณ ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ฃน 6E ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ 350๋งŒ ์˜จ์Šค๋กœ ์•ˆ์ •์ ์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์ง€๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ •๋ จ ๋ฐ ํŒ๋งค ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ 5% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ 356๋งŒ ์˜จ์Šค๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค. 6E ์˜จ์Šค๋‹น ๋žœ๋“œํ™” ๋งค์ถœ์€ 51% ์ƒ์Šนํ•œ 38,116๋žœ๋“œ๋กœ, EBITDA๋Š” 436์–ต ๋žœ๋“œ, ํ•ต์‹ฌ ์ˆœ์ด์ต์€ 229์–ต ๋žœ๋“œ์— ๋‹ฌํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋งŒ ๊ทธ๋ฃน ๋‹จ์œ„ ๋น„์šฉ์€ 8% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ 6E ์˜จ์Šค๋‹น 24,249๋žœ๋“œ๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๊ณ , ์ž๋ณธ ์ง€์ถœ์€ 3% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ 72์–ต ๋žœ๋“œ์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์‹ค์ ์€ ๊ธˆ์† ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๊ฐ€ ์ง€์†์ ์ธ ์šด์˜ ๋น„์šฉ ์••๋ฐ•์„ ์ƒ์‡„ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ PGM ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด์˜ ๋งˆ์ง„์ด ํฌ๊ฒŒ ๊ฐœ์„ ๋˜์—ˆ์Œ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค€๋‹ค. ์ž„ํŒ”๋ผ๋Š” 220์–ต ๋žœ๋“œ์˜ ์ž‰์—ฌํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„์„ ์ฐฝ์ถœํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์กฐ์ • ์ˆœํ˜„๊ธˆ 220์–ต ๋žœ๋“œ๋กœ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์„ ๋งˆ๊ฐํ•ด ์žฌ๋ฌด ๊ฑด์ „์„ฑ์„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์‹คํ˜„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐœ์„ ๊ณผ ์ •๋ จ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ์— ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ์‹ ํ˜ธ์ด์ง€๋งŒ, ๋‹จ์œ„ ๋น„์šฉ ์ƒ์Šน์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์—…๊ณ„์˜ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ œ์•ฝ ์š”์ธ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚จ์•„ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
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์‹ฑ์˜ˆ์€์„: ์žํšŒ์‚ฌ ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—… ์„ ๊ด‘๊ณต์žฅ 9์›” 3์ผ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฐœ; ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—… ๊ด‘๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ •๋น„ ์ž‘์—…์„ ์ „๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ถ”์ง„ ์ค‘.
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์‹ฑ์˜ˆ์€์„: ์žํšŒ์‚ฌ ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—… ์„ ๊ด‘๊ณต์žฅ 9์›” 3์ผ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฐœ; ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—… ๊ด‘๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ •๋น„ ์ž‘์—…์„ ์ „๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ถ”์ง„ ์ค‘.
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์‹ฑ์˜ˆ์€์„: ์žํšŒ์‚ฌ ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—… ์„ ๊ด‘๊ณต์žฅ 9์›” 3์ผ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฐœ; ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—… ๊ด‘๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ •๋น„ ์ž‘์—…์„ ์ „๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ถ”์ง„ ์ค‘.
์‹ฑ์˜ˆ์€์„: ์žํšŒ์‚ฌ ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—… ์„ ๊ด‘๊ณต์žฅ 9์›” 3์ผ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฐœ; ์ธ๋งŒ๊ด‘์—… ๊ด‘๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ •๋น„ ์ž‘์—…์„ ์ „๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ถ”์ง„ ์ค‘.
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Deutsche Bank: RMB Cross-Border Payments to Increase 15% in 2023 - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)