[SMM Annual Report] China Aluminium Price and Supply-Demand Forecast 2020-2026E

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Jan 9, 2023 15:26
However, since a large number of aluminium smelters reduced or suspended the production in 2021, the overall output in 2022 will still increase by 4.1% year-on-year. In terms of demand, the surprises are contributed by aluminium extrusion for photovoltaic, for lightweight new energy vehicles, and for export, which has offset the collapse of demand in the real estate industry chain.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
๋ฏธ๊ตญ 5์›” PCE ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€์ง€์ˆ˜ ์ „๋…„ ๋Œ€๋น„ 4.1% ์ƒ์Šน, ๊ทผ์› PCE 3.4% ์ƒ์Šนโ€ฆ 1๋ถ„๊ธฐ GDP ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ  2.1%๋กœ ์ƒํ–ฅ ์ˆ˜์ •
9์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ๊ตญ 5์›” PCE ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€์ง€์ˆ˜ ์ „๋…„ ๋Œ€๋น„ 4.1% ์ƒ์Šน, ๊ทผ์› PCE 3.4% ์ƒ์Šนโ€ฆ 1๋ถ„๊ธฐ GDP ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ  2.1%๋กœ ์ƒํ–ฅ ์ˆ˜์ •
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฏธ๊ตญ 5์›” PCE ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€์ง€์ˆ˜ ์ „๋…„ ๋Œ€๋น„ 4.1% ์ƒ์Šน, ๊ทผ์› PCE 3.4% ์ƒ์Šนโ€ฆ 1๋ถ„๊ธฐ GDP ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ  2.1%๋กœ ์ƒํ–ฅ ์ˆ˜์ •
๋ฏธ๊ตญ 5์›” PCE ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€์ง€์ˆ˜ ์ „๋…„ ๋Œ€๋น„ 4.1% ์ƒ์Šน, ๊ทผ์› PCE 3.4% ์ƒ์Šนโ€ฆ 1๋ถ„๊ธฐ GDP ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ  2.1%๋กœ ์ƒํ–ฅ ์ˆ˜์ •
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ฐ์ค€์ด ์ฃผ์‹œํ•˜๋Š” ์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ์ง€ํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ๊ณต์‹ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ƒ๋ฌด๋ถ€ ๋ฐœํ‘œ ์ž๋ฃŒ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, 5์›” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ PCE ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€์ง€์ˆ˜๋Š” ์ „๋…„ ๋™์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 4.1% ์ƒ์Šนํ•ด 2023๋…„ 4์›” ์ดํ›„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ; ํ•œํŽธ ๊ทผ์› PCE๋„ ์ „๋…„ ๋™์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 3.4% ์ƒ์Šนํ•ด ์‹œ์žฅ ์˜ˆ์ƒ์น˜์— ๋ถ€ํ•ฉํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, 2023๋…„ 10์›” ์ดํ›„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ 1๋ถ„๊ธฐ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์‹ค์งˆ GDP์˜ ์ตœ์ข… ์—ฐ์œจ ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ ์€ 2.1%๋กœ ์ƒํ–ฅ ์กฐ์ •๋ผ ์ด์ „ ์ˆ˜์ •์น˜์ธ 1.6%๋ฅผ ์›ƒ๋Œ์•˜๋‹ค. ํ•œํŽธ 5์›” ๋‚ด๊ตฌ์žฌ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์€ ์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 4.5% ๊ฐ์†Œํ•ด ์•ฝ 1๋…„ ๋งŒ์— ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ํญ์˜ ๊ฐ์†Œ์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€๋‹ค.
9์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ๊ตญ, ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘ ํ™”๋ฌผ์„  ๋“œ๋ก  ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์— ๋Œ€์‘ํ•ด ์ด๋ž€ ๊ณต์Šต
10์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ๊ตญ, ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘ ํ™”๋ฌผ์„  ๋“œ๋ก  ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์— ๋Œ€์‘ํ•ด ์ด๋ž€ ๊ณต์Šต
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฏธ๊ตญ, ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘ ํ™”๋ฌผ์„  ๋“œ๋ก  ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์— ๋Œ€์‘ํ•ด ์ด๋ž€ ๊ณต์Šต
๋ฏธ๊ตญ, ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘ ํ™”๋ฌผ์„  ๋“œ๋ก  ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์— ๋Œ€์‘ํ•ด ์ด๋ž€ ๊ณต์Šต
๋ฏธ ์ค‘๋ถ€์‚ฌ๋ น๋ถ€๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘์„ ํ†ต๊ณผํ•˜๋˜ ์ƒ์„ ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์— ๋Œ€์‘ํ•ด ์ด๋ž€์„ ๊ณต์Šตํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ตฌ์ฒด์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด๋ž€์€ ์ผ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ ๋“œ๋ก ์„ ์ด์šฉํ•ด ํ™”๋ฌผ์„  '์—๋ฒ„ ๋Ÿฌ๋ธ”๋ฆฌ'๋ฅผ ํ‘œ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ผ์•˜์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ดํ›„ ๋ฏธ๊ตฐ ์ „ํˆฌ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ž€์˜ ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ ๋ฐ ๋“œ๋ก  ์ €์žฅ ์‹œ์„ค๊ณผ ํ•ด์•ˆ ๋ ˆ์ด๋” ๊ธฐ์ง€๋ฅผ ํƒ€๊ฒฉํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋„๋„๋“œ ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์€ ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ด๋ž€์˜ ๋“œ๋ก  ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์ด ํœด์ „ ํ˜‘์ •์„ ์œ„๋ฐ˜ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•œํŽธ, ํ˜ธ์„ธ์ธ ๋ชจํฌ๋น„ ์ด๋ž€ ์ด์Šฌ๋žŒ ํ˜๋ช… ์ˆ˜๋น„๋Œ€ ๋Œ€๋ณ€์ธ์€ ์ด๋ž€๊ณผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จํ•œ ํ†ต์‹  ํ•ซ๋ผ์ธ์„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ฃผ์žฅ์„ ๋ถ€์ธํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋Š” ์™„์ „ํžˆ ํ—ˆ๊ตฌ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
ํ•ด์™ธ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ž‰๊ณณ ์‹œ์žฅ ์—‡๊ฐˆ๋ ค: ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ฐ•์„ธ, ์ผ๋ณธยทํƒœ๊ตญ ์•ฝ์„ธ [SMM ๋ถ„์„]
2026๋…„ 6์›” 26์ผ 19:03
ํ•ด์™ธ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ž‰๊ณณ ์‹œ์žฅ ์—‡๊ฐˆ๋ ค: ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ฐ•์„ธ, ์ผ๋ณธยทํƒœ๊ตญ ์•ฝ์„ธ [SMM ๋ถ„์„]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ํ•ด์™ธ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ž‰๊ณณ ์‹œ์žฅ ์—‡๊ฐˆ๋ ค: ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ฐ•์„ธ, ์ผ๋ณธยทํƒœ๊ตญ ์•ฝ์„ธ [SMM ๋ถ„์„]
ํ•ด์™ธ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ž‰๊ณณ ์‹œ์žฅ ์—‡๊ฐˆ๋ ค: ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ฐ•์„ธ, ์ผ๋ณธยทํƒœ๊ตญ ์•ฝ์„ธ [SMM ๋ถ„์„]
2026๋…„ 6์›” 26์ผ 19:03
However, since a large number of aluminium smelters reduced or suspend - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)