SMM Review and Forecast of China Steel Market Supply and Demand 2022-2023

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Dec 29, 2022 13:30
Looking forward to 2023, SMM believes that steel price will be less volatile. On the other hand, considering the palpable economic development pressure at home and abroad, the prices of commodities such as steel may be re-valued under pessimism. As such, steel prices are likely to stay on the downward track throughout 2023.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
ํ˜ธ์ฃผ, ํ•œ๊ตญยท๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ์‚ฐ ์•„์—ฐ๋„๊ธˆ๊ฐ•ํŒ ๋ฐ˜๋คํ•‘ ์กฐ์‚ฌ ์ข…๋ฃŒ
2026๋…„ 6์›” 23์ผ 16:31
ํ˜ธ์ฃผ, ํ•œ๊ตญยท๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ์‚ฐ ์•„์—ฐ๋„๊ธˆ๊ฐ•ํŒ ๋ฐ˜๋คํ•‘ ์กฐ์‚ฌ ์ข…๋ฃŒ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ํ˜ธ์ฃผ, ํ•œ๊ตญยท๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ์‚ฐ ์•„์—ฐ๋„๊ธˆ๊ฐ•ํŒ ๋ฐ˜๋คํ•‘ ์กฐ์‚ฌ ์ข…๋ฃŒ
ํ˜ธ์ฃผ, ํ•œ๊ตญยท๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ์‚ฐ ์•„์—ฐ๋„๊ธˆ๊ฐ•ํŒ ๋ฐ˜๋คํ•‘ ์กฐ์‚ฌ ์ข…๋ฃŒ
2026๋…„ 6์›” 19์ผ, ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ๋ฐ˜๋คํ•‘ ์œ„์›ํšŒ๋Š” ๊ณต๊ณ ๋ฒˆํ˜ธ 2026/088ํ˜ธ๋ฅผ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜์—ฌ, ์‹ ์ฒญ์ธ BlueScope Steel Limited์˜ ์ฒ ํšŒ ์‹ ์ฒญ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฐ ๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ์—์„œ ์ˆ˜์ž…๋œ ์•„์—ฐ ๋„๊ธˆ ๊ฐ•ํŒ[์•„์—ฐ ์ฝ”ํŒ…(๋„๊ธˆ) ๊ฐ•์žฌ]์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฐ˜๋คํ•‘ ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์ข…๋ฃŒํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์•ž์„œ 2026๋…„ 5์›” 22์ผ, ์œ„์›ํšŒ๋Š” ๊ณต๊ณ ๋ฒˆํ˜ธ 2026/071ํ˜ธ๋ฅผ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜์—ฌ, ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ๊ตญ๋‚ด ๊ธฐ์—…์ธ BlueScope Steel Limited๊ฐ€ ์ œ์ถœํ•œ ์‹ ์ฒญ์— ๋Œ€์‘ํ•˜์—ฌ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฐ ๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ์—์„œ ์ˆ˜์ž…๋œ ์•„์—ฐ ๋„๊ธˆ ๊ฐ•ํŒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฐ˜๋คํ•‘ ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๊ฐœ์‹œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
2026๋…„ 6์›” 23์ผ 16:31
๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ ์ง€์†, ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๋‚ฉ ๋†’์€ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์— ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜
2026๋…„ 6์›” 5์ผ 11:08
๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ ์ง€์†, ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๋‚ฉ ๋†’์€ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์— ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ ์ง€์†, ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๋‚ฉ ๋†’์€ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์— ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜
๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ ์ง€์†, ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๋‚ฉ ๋†’์€ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์— ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜
[์ค‘๊ตญ ์™ธ ๋‚ฉ ์‹œ์žฅ ๋™ํ–ฅ] ๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ์ตœ๊ทผ 2์ฐจ ๋‚ฉ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ๋ณดํ˜ธ ๋‹จ์†์ด ์ผ์‹œ ์ข…๋ฃŒ๋˜๊ณ  ์ผ๋ถ€ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ๊ฐ€ ์ ์ฐจ ๊ฐ€๋™์„ ์žฌ๊ฐœํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์•Œ๋ ค์กŒ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ํ˜„์žฌ 1์ฐจ ๋‚ฉ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ ํ˜„์ง€ ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๋‚ฉ์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋†’์€ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ตœ์‹  ์ •๋ณด์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, Pbโ‰ฅ99.99% ๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ ๋‚ฉ๊ดด์˜ 6์›” CIF ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์€ ์ผ๋ฐ˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ธฐ์ค€ 180๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ/ํ†ค์— ๋‹ฌํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” 5์›” ์•ฝ 165๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ/ํ†ค ๋Œ€๋น„ ์ƒ์Šนํ•œ ์ˆ˜์น˜๋‹ค.
2026๋…„ 6์›” 5์ผ 11:08
๋‚œ์–‘์ค‘์ œ, ํ๋‚ฉ์ถ•์ „์ง€ ์ˆ˜๊ฑฐ ์‚ฌ์—… ์Šน์ธ ํš๋“
2026๋…„ 5์›” 27์ผ 14:15
๋‚œ์–‘์ค‘์ œ, ํ๋‚ฉ์ถ•์ „์ง€ ์ˆ˜๊ฑฐ ์‚ฌ์—… ์Šน์ธ ํš๋“
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋‚œ์–‘์ค‘์ œ, ํ๋‚ฉ์ถ•์ „์ง€ ์ˆ˜๊ฑฐ ์‚ฌ์—… ์Šน์ธ ํš๋“
๋‚œ์–‘์ค‘์ œ, ํ๋‚ฉ์ถ•์ „์ง€ ์ˆ˜๊ฑฐ ์‚ฌ์—… ์Šน์ธ ํš๋“
[ํ๋‚ฉ์ถ•์ „์ง€ ์ˆ˜๊ฑฐ ์—…์ฒด ๋™ํ–ฅ] ์ตœ๊ทผ ํ—ˆ๋‚œ์„ฑ ๋‚œ์–‘์‹œ ์ƒํƒœํ™˜๊ฒฝ๊ตญ ์‹ ์˜ˆ๋ถ„๊ตญ์€ ๋‚œ์–‘ ์ค‘์ œ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ๋ณดํ˜ธ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์œ ํ•œ๊ณต์‚ฌ์˜ ํ๋‚ฉ์ถ•์ „์ง€ ์ˆ˜๊ฑฐยท๋ณด๊ด€ยท์šด์†ก ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅํ‰๊ฐ€ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ(์™„์‹ ํ™˜์‹ฌ[2026] 8ํ˜ธ)๋ฅผ ๊ณต์‹ ์Šน์ธํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰, ์ƒํ•˜์ฐจ, ๋ณด๊ด€์„ ํ†ตํ•ฉํ•œ ์ข…ํ•ฉ ์ž‘์—…์žฅ์„ ๊ฑด์„คํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์˜จ์ „ํ•œ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ๊ตฌ์—ญ, ์†์ƒ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ์ „์šฉ ๋ณด๊ด€์‹ค, ์ž„์‹œ ์œ ํ•ด ํ๊ธฐ๋ฌผ ๋ณด๊ด€์‹ค์„ ๊ฐ–์ถ”๊ณ , ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ํ๋‚ฉ์ถ•์ „์ง€ ์ˆ˜๊ฑฐยท์šด์†ก ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋ฅผ 5,000ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์„ค๊ณ„ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
2026๋…„ 5์›” 27์ผ 14:15
Looking forward to 2023, SMM believes that steel price will be less vo - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)