Silicon Wafer Supply Likely to Become Surplus with over 120 GW Capacity to Be Commissioned in 2022

SHANGHAI, Jun 23 (SMM) - According to SMM statistics, domestic silicon wafer capacity is expected to increase by 122.5GW in 2022 on top the total capacity about 398GW at the end of 2021. In positive scenario, installed capacity of PV is likely to rise by 240 GW in 2022, based on which the overcapacity of silicon wafers may further aggravate.

SMM has learned that in 2022, with the combined push of the domestic policy and economic development, the expected new installed capacity of PV will be 80-90GW; while overseas, in the case of robust development in the fossil energy shortage and renewable energy sectors, 150GW of installed PV capacity will be added, which equals to a total added demand for silicon wafers at 288GW. Meanwhile, as China's silicon wafer production capacity takes up more than 98% of the world's total, it is projected that there will be a further surplus of silicon wafer capacity in 2022.

At the same time, it is not difficult to see from the domestic existing and expanded capacity table that, the expansion of silicon wafer capacity has shown signs of slowdown, and some top-tier enterprises have basically stopped the expansion of silicon wafer production lines.

In addition, large-sized silicon wafers can not only reduce the manufacturing cost of silicon materials, but also contain the manufacturing cost of slices and cell modules. Due to the market's preference for large-sized silicon wafers, the new production lines are basically all 182mm and 210mm production lines.

According to SMM understanding, by the end of 2022, the gross production capacity of 182mm wafers or above will reach more than 400GW, accounting for nearly 80% of the total.