SMM:2021-2022 China Metal Silicon Market supply and demand Analysis and Price Forecast [Silicon Industry Summit]

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In the 2021 (9th) Silicon Industry Summit held solemnly by SMM, SMM senior analyst Yang Xiaoting analyzed the supply, demand and price of China's metal silicon market from 2021 to 2022, mainly from the aspects of China's silicon supply, metal silicon demand development trend, 2022 metal silicon price forecast, silicon price method and silicon products.

Silicon metal production from January to October 2021 is expected to reach an all-time high of 2.86 million tons for the whole year.

97 silicon supplement low-grade silicon supply recovery system gradually perfect regenerated silicon to participate in the cycle

The total output of 97 silicon and recycled silicon in China from January to October in 2021 is 250000 tons, which makes up the shortage of metal silicon supply to some extent.

The price of silicon metal at home and abroad is upside down to attract imports. From January to September 2021, the import volume of metal silicon reached 4000 tons, an increase of 782 percent over the same period last year.

Nearly half of the supply of metal silicon in Xinjiang Yunnan retreated to the third place.

As a result of the increase in the capacity load of large factories in Xinjiang in 2021, the proportion of Xinjiang's output in the country has increased by 9% year on year.

The cumulative output of Yunnan from January to October in 2021 decreased by 14% compared with the same period last year due to drought, lack of electricity, double control and so on.

The price of silicon metal at home and abroad is upside down to attract imports. From January to September 2021, the import volume of metal silicon reached 4000 tons, an increase of 782 percent over the same period last year.

The seasonal accumulation of metal silicon at the end of 2021 will be lower than the 10-year average.

The increase of domestic trade demand and the decline of export volume lead to the decline of metal silicon port social inventory. The metal silicon accumulation level in 2021 will be lower than the 10-year average, opening a new inventory cycle.

It is estimated that the total inventory of metal silicon will be only 78000 tons by the end of 2021, slightly lower than the same period last year.

Aluminum alloy processing fee loss, cost pressure, soaring silicon price changes aluminum alloy pricing model

Recycled aluminum alloy: power limitation, tight supply of waste aluminum, high metal silicon, automobile "lack of core" and other problems affect the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy repair.

Primary aluminum alloy: the main auxiliary metal silicon is soaring, and the primary aluminum alloy is difficult to offset the loss, which derives a new pricing mode of "metal silicon-aluminum alloy processing fee" price linkage.

The foreign trade of metal silicon changes from a large loss to a profit. The silicon price fluctuates sharply or the export price is higher than the domestic trade price for a long time.

The foreign trade profit of metal silicon fluctuates greatly: from May to July, the foreign trade sheet of metal silicon lost a large area, and the loss narrowed in August. In October, the price of foreign trade was higher than that of domestic trade, exporters turned to profit, and the price of foreign trade was higher than that of domestic trade.

Year-on-year growth in silicon metal exports is expected to reach 29 per cent in 2021: in September 2021, China's silicon metal exports were 72000 tons, up 6 per cent from the previous month and 32 per cent from the same period last year. The cumulative export volume of silicon metal from January to September in 2021 was 605000 tons, an increase of 40% over the same period last year.

Supply elasticity weak downstream expansion rapid metal silicon supply gap 2022 H1 may appear

Under the background of "double carbon" policy, the upward cost of metal silicon has become a foregone conclusion, and the pricing logic has changed.

SMM point of view: it is difficult for metal silicon to rise sharply under the pressure of falling stock at the end of the year and the postponement of production in southwest China in the short term. The superposition of uncertain factors such as southwest power supply and double control in the main production areas lead to the uncertainty of H1 supply gap in 2022, but under the support of large-scale expansion downstream, the price center of metal silicon with prefix and prefix is expected to remain at 30000-40000 yuan / ton in 2022. Under current conditions, the state of high profit of metal silicon is expected to be maintained in 2022.

Risks: Silicon metal started in southwest, new production capacity in Yunnan and Xinjiang exceeded expectations; new production capacity of organosilicon and polysilicon was delayed; silicone consumption fell after the end of the epidemic.

Introduction of SMM Silicon Price method

The meaning of SMM silicon price: it represents the representative price level that can be traded in the market; in the absence of the above transaction information, SMM silicon price represents the price level that is most likely to be closed on that day; quotation is suspended on holidays.

Price acquisition method: SMM silicon price is based on the extensive collection of market information, with the prices of mainstream enterprises as the main reference. These sources of information include producers, consumers, traders and relevant third parties.

Price production process: rigorous pricing process, reflected in every process from collection, analysis, pricing, release to archiving, review and evaluation; regularly understand market feedback, improve pricing process and pricing methods.

Price release method: the price of the day is announced to the market free of charge through Shanghai Nonferrous net Silicon Zone (https://hq.smm.cn/gui) and Palm Nonferrous APP,; through Palm Nonferrous APP, Wechat, website members, paid push to the market or access to history.