Tesla's lithium iron phosphate battery detonates the phosphorus chemical sector. Enterprises with phosphate rock and advanced technology will be the big winners.

Recently, Tesla said in the third quarterly report that lithium iron phosphate batteries will be installed around the world in the future. As soon as the news came out, the A-share phosphorus chemical sector continued to rise last week. Among them, including clear Water (300437.SZ), six countries Chemical (600470.SH), 002538.SZ (002538.SZ), 002136.SZ (002136.SZ) and other companies showed a sharp rise.

In this regard, Liukuo Chemical and Anada Company said that at present, the company's main products wet-process high-purity phosphoric acid and ferric phosphate are in short supply. Anada's iron phosphate production capacity, according to the output of orders every month, only for long single major customers.

The price of iron phosphate has now reached 25000 yuan per ton, up 42% from September.

Longzhong information industry analyst Zongni said that the current phosphorus chemical plate hype, mainly aimed at downstream iron phosphate products. The production capacity of iron phosphate mainly depends on the upstream phosphate rock and phosphoric acid enterprises. In the future, phosphorus chemical enterprises that master raw materials and advanced wet-process phosphoric acid production technology will have an advantage in the industry competition.

Accelerated layout of phosphorus chemical enterprises

In the quarterly report for 2021 released on October 20, local time, Tesla said that the standard versions of Model 3 and Moderl Y are being gradually adjusted to carry lithium iron phosphate batteries, covering the global market, while long-lasting models will continue to use ternary lithium batteries.

Tesla's statement means that both the standard Model 3 / Y models produced by his US factories and future European factories will use lithium iron phosphate batteries, which is a great stimulus for the iron phosphate industry. In addition, BYD (002594.SZ), Ulay Motor and other major domestic new energy car manufacturers have also increased the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery vehicles one after another.

East Asia Qianhai Securities Research News pointed out that by 2025, the total demand for lithium iron phosphate in China is expected to exceed 2 million tons, with a compound growth rate of more than 50%, making it one of the fastest growing industries in the future. Among them, the demand for lithium iron phosphate for new energy vehicle power batteries is expected to exceed 1.27 million tons, and the demand for energy storage batteries is expected to exceed 730000 tons. If the batteries of new energy vehicles around the world begin to turn to lithium iron phosphate, then iron phosphate has a lot of room for growth in the future.

Affected by this, since the beginning of this year, a number of enterprises have seen the market potential of iron phosphate and increased the layout of iron phosphate production capacity. Among them, Anada and Hunan Yuneng cooperate to build 50, 000 tons of iron phosphate production capacity, 002601.SZ Group (002601.SZ) and Hubei Wanrun jointly build 100000 tons of iron phosphate production line, medium Nuclear Titanium dioxide (002145.SZ) plans to build 500000 tons of iron phosphate production capacity in Gansu, and New Yangfeng (002902.SZ) also has a development plan of 200000 tons of iron phosphate.

The high demand has stimulated the price of iron phosphate. In September this year, the price of iron phosphate soared by 35% to 17500 yuan per ton. In October, iron phosphate is in short supply, and the price has been raised twice in the industry. at present, the average price has reached 25000 yuan / ton.

In response, relevant sources in Anada told the Financial Associated Press that in September, iron phosphate was expected to reach 20000 yuan / ton by the end of this year, but it rose to 25000 yuan / ton in a month. this price completely covers the increase in phosphoric acid and ensures the profit of the product.

Unstable quantity and price of phosphoric acid affect ferric phosphate

And people in the industry expect that the biggest bottleneck for the future production capacity of iron phosphate is phosphoric acid.

Relevant sources in Anada said that at present, the company has an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of iron phosphate, and 30,000 tons of wet-process high-purity phosphoric acid (85% content) is supplied annually by six-country chemical industry, while the annual production capacity of high-purity phosphoric acid of the six countries is less than 50,000 tons. Once the new 50,000-ton production capacity in cooperation with Hunan Yuneng is put into production, the annual demand for wet-process high-purity phosphoric acid will be about 70,000 tons. In this way, the phosphoric acid output of the six countries will not be able to meet the needs of the company, and the company may purchase phosphoric acid from abroad.

It is worth noting that in September, under the influence of domestic "double control of energy consumption", phosphoric acid set off a wave of rising prices. According to Longzhong information industry price monitoring data, in September, the highest price of domestic thermal phosphoric acid exceeded 20000 yuan / ton, and the highest price of wet-process phosphoric acid was 17000 yuan / ton. In response, Zongni told the Financial Associated Press that yellow phosphorus quoted 50887 yuan per ton at that time, an increase of 95.36% over the average price in August and 230.16% over the same period last year. And many enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan are unable to start work at present, resulting in the production of phosphoric acid and the depletion of inventory.

After entering October, the operating rate of domestic phosphate mines rose to 48%. In response, Zongni said that the price correction of phosphoric acid in October was relatively large, and the quotations of the domestic industry were relatively confused. the average price of hot-process phosphoric acid was 17000 yuan / ton, with a minimum price of 13000 yuan / ton, while the lowest price for wet-process phosphoric acid was only 11000 yuan / ton. The main reason is that the construction of phosphate rock increased in October, while the phosphoric acid enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were unable to start work due to the double-limit policy of energy consumption, so the price of phosphate rock decreased in the short term, thus affecting the price of phosphoric acid.

However, Zongni also told the Financial Associated Press that although the price of phosphoric acid fell by a high margin in October, even 13000 yuan / ton of thermal phosphoric acid was still twice the average price of previous years, so the trend of large-scale price increase of phosphoric acid can not be ignored. under the influence of relevant policies, the instability of the quantity and price of phosphoric acid may become the bottleneck of iron phosphate production in the future.

Industry insiders said that currently ready to build large-scale iron phosphate capacity enterprises, are looking for phosphoric acid production enterprises to cooperate, such as Tianci material (002709.SZ) new capacity of 300000 tons, and Ningde era (300750.SZ) new iron phosphate capacity, have found the phosphorus chemical company Hubei Sanning and Hubei Yihua (002422.SZ) cooperation, its purpose is to ensure the future large-scale iron phosphate capacity of phosphoric acid supply.

Ore source plus technology is competitive.

It is worth noting that phosphoric acid as a raw material has a great impact on the production capacity of iron phosphate in the future, and industry insiders say that for the future phosphorus chemical industry, enterprises with mineral sources and advanced wet-process phosphoric acid technology, will have an advantage in the competition.

Zongni said that wet-process phosphoric acid is relatively hot-process phosphoric acid, the product concentration is high, and the price is low, so the current domestic phosphorus chemical enterprises to expand the phosphoric acid project, mainly wet-process phosphoric acid.

However, judging from the current technology of iron phosphate production capacity, high-quality phosphoric acid is needed to produce high-quality iron phosphate, so hot-process phosphoric acid has a greater advantage over wet-process phosphoric acid, although the price of thermal-process phosphoric acid is on the high side.

In the future, if wet-process phosphoric acid enterprises, through improved technology, can improve the quality of wet-process phosphoric acid to the same concentration and quality as the current hot-process phosphoric acid, then the lower price of wet-process phosphoric acid will certainly become the mainstream in the market. The cost advantage of phosphorus chemical enterprises with mineral sources is also more obvious.

It is understood that at present, Yuntianhua (600096.SH) phosphate ore reserves 900 million tons, phosphate mineral energy 14.5 million tons / year, wet-process phosphoric acid production capacity 2.265 million tons / year; Xingfa Group (600141.SH) phosphate ore reserves of about 1.2 billion tons, phosphate mineral energy 5.3 million tons / year, wet-process phosphoric acid 700000 tons / year. Hubei Yihua phosphate rock reserves of 130 million tons, phosphate mineral capacity of 300000 tons / year, is expected to increase the annual production of 1.5 million tons of mining rights by the end of 2021.

In this regard, some industry insiders said that once these traditional phosphorus chemical enterprises with cost advantages can be transformed into iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate race track, then the pattern of lithium iron phosphate industry is expected to usher in great changes.