The "potash king" returns with lithium! How much can Salt Lake shares rise on the first day of the resumption of listing? The agency predicts that the target price is coming.

Last night, * ST Salt Lake issued a suggestive announcement on the first day of the resumption of listing of the company's shares, the company's shares resumed listing from August 10, 2021, referred to as "Salt Lake shares". The previous closing price shown by the immediate market on the first day of the resumption of listing of the company's shares was the closing price of the day before the suspension of the company's shares, that is, 8.84 yuan per share. There is no price limit on the first day of the resumption of listing of the company's shares (that is, August 10, 2021). Since the next trading day of the resumption of listing (that is, August 11, 2021), the daily rise and fall of the company's shares has been limited to 10%.

Due to the recent hot performance of lithium resources concept stocks in the market, the return of "lithium" from Salt Lake shares has been highly concerned by the market. A number of institutions have also given the forecast target price and target market capitalization. Citic Construction Investment Securities and China Galaxy Securities have both given an optimistic target market capitalization of 200 billion yuan. Citic Securities estimates that the total market capitalization of the company is 180 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 33.00 yuan.

Citic Construction Investment Securities Research report pointed out that using the segment valuation method to give the company a valuation, the potassium chloride business company has a production capacity of 5 million tons, assuming that potassium chloride tons are sold at a price of 2500 yuan (excluding tax), and it is expected to contribute 6 billion yuan to its mother's net profit, giving 10-15 times PE, corresponding to a market capitalization of 6-90 billion yuan. Salt Lake lithium extraction business, the company plans to produce 100000 tons at this stage, assuming that the price of lithium carbonate tons is 80,000 yuan (excluding tax), the estimated contribution to the mother net profit is 3 billion yuan, and the corresponding market value of 50 times PE, is 150 billion; the target market value of the company is expected to be between 210 billion yuan and 240 billion yuan after the company resumes listing.

According to the China Galaxy Securities Research report, the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 140,155 and 15.8 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of-0.04%, 10.5% and 2.1%, respectively, and net profit of 53.3,56.0 and 5.79 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 161.3%, 5.1% and 3.3% over the same period last year. (EPS) per share is 0.98,1.03,1.07 yuan respectively. Be optimistic about the long-term development of the company, cover it for the first time, and give it a "recommended" rating. Based on the comparable company valuation, we give the company 20 times PE for potassium chloride business and 40 times PE for lithium carbonate business. In terms of performance in 2021, the company is valued at about 114.5 billion yuan; taking into account the growth potential of the company's lithium carbonate business, combined with the business demeanor, we think the company's valuation should be in the range of 1300-200 billion yuan.

Zheshang Securities estimates that the company's operating income from 2021 to 2023 will be 175.41pm 200.90 / 21.069 billion yuan, up 25.14%, 14.54% and 4.87% over the same period last year; and its net profit will be 51.06 pm 67.78 / 7.387 billion yuan, up 150.37%, 32.74% and 8.99% over the same period last year. According to the industry comparable company valuation, give the company 2022 potash plate 20 times PE valuation and lithium plate 40 times PE valuation, corresponding to the company's total market capitalization of 150.7 billion yuan, covering for the first time, given a "buy" rating. According to the valuation of Zheshang Securities, the share price may reach about 27 yuan.

In its research report on July 27th, CITIC Securities predicted that the company's annual return net profit in 2021-22-23 would reach 54.3 yuan 69.9 / 7.2 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS1.00/1.29/1.32 yuan. Through the segment valuation method: 1) the rise in the price of agricultural products catalyses the price of potash fertilizer to enter the upstream channel, the quality of potash assets of the company is good, and it is expected to maximize the benefit of this round of market, giving 20xPE for 21 years, the corresponding estimated value is about 100 billion yuan; 2) Lithium extraction from Salt Lake is an industry with a clear alpha, and the company's long-term equity production capacity is about 70,000 tons / year, which is expected to achieve a profit of 2.1 billion yuan. with reference to the comparable valuation of the same industry, lithium carbonate business is given 40xPE, corresponding to a market capitalization of about 80 billion yuan. we estimate that the total market capitalization of the company is 180 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 33.00 yuan, covering for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.

Salt lake potash fertilizer lithium salt faucet

After divesting the loss-making chemical assets, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in the R & D and production business of extracting potassium chloride from salt lake resources and lithium salts such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, and is the leader of extracting potassium and lithium from salt lakes in China. In 2020, the company's potash and lithium business accounted for 99% and 1% of the gross profit, respectively, and the lithium business is expected to account for more than 9% of the gross profit in 2021.

In terms of salt lake resources, the company owns Chaerhan Salt Lake, the largest soluble potassium magnesium salt deposit in China, with potassium chloride reserves of about 540 million tons and lithium chloride reserves of about 8 million tons. The company has a production capacity of 5 million tons of potassium chloride, 30, 000 tons of lithium carbonate, 30, 000 tons of lithium salt under construction, and 40, 000 tons of lithium salt production planned for the long term.

In addition, the company is also the largest potassium chloride production enterprise in China, with an annual production capacity of 5 million tons accounting for 64% of the national production capacity, and an output of 5.52 million tons in 2020, accounting for 78% of the national output. The company has potassium chloride reserves of 540 million tons in Chaerhan Salt Lake. after years of development, it has advanced technology and production technology. relying on high-quality potash resources and technology, the company has the lowest potash cost in the industry, and the gross profit margin has been maintained at 70% for many years.

Previously, through the debt-to-equity swap, the company significantly reduced the level of debt and its financial expenses. In 2020, the net assets and net profit returned to the mother were both turned positive smoothly, which were 52.7 / 2.04 billion yuan respectively, and the sustainable operation ability was restored.