Hexin Investment: can growth stocks still grow when lithium batteries plummet?

I. disk point of view

Yesterday, the lithium battery stock index opened slightly lower. After several consecutive rounds of dips, it fell more than 30 points at one point in intraday trading, but then began to rebound, rising again in the afternoon and finally stabilizing after a wave of decline, but whether it can climb continuously. The current uncertainty is still great. On the disk, the agricultural plate rose collectively, while the concepts of liquor, medicine, airport shipping and scenic spot tourism were relatively strong, while the decline list was mainly concentrated in lithium batteries and petrochemicals, and the technical index turned again after breaking the position. the current situation is weak as a whole, and the operation controls the position well. After rebounding and breaking through in the later stage, we are considering to increase the position.

In both the peripheral market and the domestic market, lithium batteries have recently begun to pull back after a continuous rally, and bad news has also continued to be released. in the large-scale recalls of Great Wall and Chery, although many companies have refuted rumors one after another, the blow to the plate is still there, especially the high-level sentiment is already quite different. this wave of lithium battery core stocks have been broken, although the general trend has not yet been reversed. But the short-term risk rises rapidly, the operation is cautious to avoid, at the same time, the technology sector has also entered the continuous adjustment mode, the growth double-core short-term rise may come to an end, but before the change of the blue chip at the bottom forms the climate, it is still possible for growth to reverse upward.

The agricultural sector has benefited a lot, but the policy factors may be that the agricultural sector has not performed very well all the time. Now the flood situation in the southern part of the country is over, but it is obvious that the central region is beginning to have continuous heavy rain. In fact, no matter at home, including foreign European countries, there are also greater floods, while the Americas is experiencing a continuous round of dry weather. It can be said that the climate is very abnormal all over the world. At the same time, the epidemic is also the core of stimulating the agricultural outbreak. Recently, the agricultural sector as a whole is stronger than the general trend. After the outbreak again today, I do not know how long this wave will last.

And believe in the point of view: at present, whether for growth or blue chip, we should be cautious. The choice of a new round of direction and style in the market has not yet landed. At the same time, the adjustment of the focus plate has also given some opportunities to the second-tier echelon. Agriculture, military industry, medicine, carbon neutralization, maybe we should pay more attention to it.

2. Message side

1. National Development and Reform Commission: it is estimated that the advanced coal production capacity will exceed 200 million tons this year.

According to the National Development and Reform Commission, in the first half of this year, through various ways such as the commissioning of coal mines under construction, the nuclear increase of mineral energy in coal production, the intelligent transformation and expansion of coal mines, and the successive projects of coal mine capacity decline, the total high-quality advanced production capacity has increased by more than 140 million tons per year, of which the coal mines under construction have been put into production of about 90 million tons per year, and the nuclear production of coal mines in production has increased by about 30 million tons per year. Ordos City of Inner Mongolia Autonomous region approved temporary land for open-pit coal mines and restored production capacity of 18 million tons per year. At present, the production capacity of coal mines that have completed capacity replacement and are in the process of approval for additional approval is more than 40 million tons per year, coupled with the fact that 70 million tons / year of coal mines under construction have been completed and put into production one after another, and nearly 110 million tons / year of high-quality production capacity will be added in the second half of the year.

2. Tianfeng Securities: downstream enterprises expand production of lithium electric equipment on a large scale and transfer it to the seller's market.

Tianfeng Securities Research report pointed out that more than 2021 downstream lithium enterprises have carried out a large-scale expansion of production, lithium equipment Davis double-click is expected to be coming. Due to the general shortage of production capacity of lithium power equipment, terminal orders gradually spread to second-tier manufacturers. According to statistics, the mainstream manufacturers of lithium power equipment obtained nearly 45 billion orders in 2021, of which the lithium power business orders reached about 34.8 billion, which were 2.98 times and 2.31 times of their 2020s income, respectively. The lithium power equipment transferred to the seller's market, the supply and demand is very tight.