[machine purchase Review] Photovoltaic industry: the inflection point of silicon price has reached the demand trend.

The price of silicon has been lowered for the first time, the inflection point of the industrial chain game has arrived, and the policy is multiple positive! The price of silicon material peaked on June 10, and the price of silicon wafer battery began to loosen. The latest price of silicon wafer in Central decreased by 0.4-0.7 yuan per wafer. On July 7, the latest quotation of silicon material began to drop by 1-1.5%. The operating rate of battery chips and components increased in July, and the leading production of components increased by 15% month-on-month, and domestic demand began to start in the second half of the year. On June 28th, the US Patent Office declared the Hanhua Perc battery patent invalid, removing the restrictions on the export of Chinese component factories to the United States, and the increase in the proportion of exports brought about an improvement in the profit structure. The distributed photovoltaic roof policy has been introduced, which stipulates that the permeability of photovoltaic roofs such as public institutions, industry and commerce, and residential roofs in pilot areas ranges from 20 to 50%. We estimate that the total space exceeds 600GW.

With the rapid growth of household installation, the export of components and inverters exceeded our expectations: the 21-year household subsidy was 3% / kwh, and directly absorbed and connected to the grid. From January to May, the new installed capacity of household photovoltaic was 4.16GW, a year-on-year increase of + 214%, exceeding our expectations. We expect that the number of new units installed for household use this year will reach 15-18 GWDs, an increase of 48-78%. From January to May, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic was 9.91GW, which was + 61.1% compared with the same period last year. The export of components & inverters grew rapidly. The export volume of components from January to May was 36.7GW, compared with the same period last year. The export value of the inverter from January to May was 1.707 billion US dollars, an increase of 61.0 percent, exceeding our expectations. We estimate that the median value of domestic photovoltaic installation in 21 / 22 is 55GW, 75GW, an increase of 15%, 36%, and a global average of 160GW, 220GW, and an increase of 15%, 38%, respectively. From January to May, the installed capacity of domestic wind power is 6.60GW, which is + 85.9% compared with the same period last year. We expect the new installed capacity of wind power to reach about 40GW in 21 years.

Overseas data from the United States, Germany, Turkey and India are eye-catching: 1) the installed capacity of 21Q1 in the United States is 5.3GW, which is + 46% compared with the same period last year, which is a record high. The scale of signed PPA projects has reached 77GW, which is + 36.4% compared with the same period last year. 2) Germany installed 2.45GW of photovoltaic equipment from January to May, which is slightly higher than we expected, and the EU carbon reduction target has been raised to 55%. We expect Europe to install 27GW of 35GW in 21 / 22, compared with the same period last year. 3) Turkey's on-grid tariff plan will be extended to the end of June 21, with a cumulative installed capacity of 486.6MW from January to May, which is + 210% compared with the same period last year. 4) India's new installed capacity from January to May totaled 3.62GW, + 206% compared with the same period last year. India plans to approve a new energy stimulus plan to boost demand, but the epidemic has intensified or forced demand to be delayed.

Jingke Energy and Ates split their main operating subsidiaries to apply for Kechuang Board listing; Tongwei issued a pre-increase announcement on 21H1 performance, and 21H1 achieved a net profit of 28-3 billion yuan, an increase of 177%, mainly due to the shortage of polysilicon materials and a substantial increase in market prices compared with the same period last year; it plans to invest 14 billion yuan to build an annual production of 200000 tons of high-purity silicon in Leshan, and the first phase of 100000 tons is scheduled to be put into production by the end of 22 years. Foster announced that it intends to issue convertible bonds to raise 2.4 billion yuan to invest in the project with an annual output of 420 million square meters of photosensitive dry film, an annual output of 24000 tons of alkali-soluble resin, an annual output of 10 million square meters of flexible copper clad laminate, and the expansion of electronic material production capacity. build a platform-based new material company.

Risk hints: increased competition, higher-than-expected price changes, lower-than-expected policy support, and so on.