Palladium will soar to $3000 Platinum will hit a new high of $1375

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Jul 9, 2021 13:11

Platinum and palladium prices have risen unexpectedly this year. As investment and industrial demand remain strong, mine disruptions and other constraints will continue to limit the growth of mining supply. As a result, supply-side developments are likely to benefit platinum and palladium, according to TD Securities.

Environmental regulations and mine problems are a big problem for platinum group metals.

"easy money and trillions of dollars in government spending, progress in Western vaccine programs and China's unexpectedly strong economic performance should all continue to be important drivers of positive 2022, although the microchip problem has slowed the auto industry."

"as the global economy continues to recover and global pollution standards tighten, recent mine disruptions suggest that palladium will be in huge shortage and is likely to reach $3000 an ounce again next year, while platinum will hit a record high of more than $1375 an ounce."

"if our demand for industry and investors is expected to be achieved in 2022, recent mine problems and the resulting decline in Norilsk production indicators will keep supply and demand fundamentals tight, especially for palladium.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ, ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ์‚ฌ์—… ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 835MW ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค ํ™•๋ณด
19์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ, ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ์‚ฌ์—… ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 835MW ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค ํ™•๋ณด
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ, ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ์‚ฌ์—… ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 835MW ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค ํ™•๋ณด
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ, ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ์‚ฌ์—… ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 835MW ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค ํ™•๋ณด
[SMM ๋‹จ์‹ ] Sibanye-Stillwater๋Š” ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด๊ณตํ™”๊ตญ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์šด์˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์„ ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ, ๋…๋ฆฝ๋ฐœ์ „์‚ฌ์—…์ž์™€์˜ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด 835MW์˜ ์žฌ์ƒ์ „๋ ฅ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋Š” ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ 43%, ํ’๋ ฅ 57%๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋˜๋ฉฐ, 164MW๋Š” ์ด๋ฏธ ์ƒ์—… ์šด์ „ ์ค‘์ด๊ณ  671MW๋Š” ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐ ํ›„ ๊ฑด์„ค ์ค‘์ด๋‹ค. ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค์—๋Š” ์šด์˜ ์ค‘์ธ 89MW Castle ํ’๋ ฅ๋ฐœ์ „๋‹จ์ง€์™€ 75MW Springbok ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๊ฐ€ ํฌํ•จ๋˜๋ฉฐ, 103MW Witberg ๋ฐ 140MW Umsinde ํ’๋ ฅ๋ฐœ์ „๋‹จ์ง€๋Š” 2026๋…„ 4๋ถ„๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ ๊ฐ€๋™๋  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋‹ค. ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์œผ๋กœ๋Š” Etana Energy ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค 220MW, NOA ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค 138MW, Africa GreenCo๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•œ 70MW๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋“ค ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” 2027~28๋…„์— ์™„๊ณต๋  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ํˆฌ์ž๋Š” ์ „๋ ฅ๋ง ์ œ์•ฝ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ์กด ์ „๋ ฅ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ด‘์—… ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์˜ ๋…ธ์ถœ์„ ์ค„์ด๋Š” ๋ฐ ์žˆ์–ด ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์˜ ์—ญํ• ์ด ์ปค์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค€๋‹ค. Sibanye๋Š” 2028๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด๊ณตํ™”๊ตญ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ˆ˜์š”์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜ ์ด์ƒ์„ ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๊ฐ€ ์ถฉ๋‹นํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ 835MW ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋Š” ๋Œ€ํ˜• ๊ธฐ์กด ๋ฐœ์ „์„ค๋น„ 1๊ธฐ์— ๋งž๋จน๋Š” ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์œผ๋กœ, ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฐ ํ’๋ ฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ํŒŒ์ดํ”„๋ผ์ธ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.
19์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ์˜ˆ์˜ ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ ์‚ฌ์—…, PGM ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ 1์–ต 6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„ ์ฐฝ์ถœ
20์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ์˜ˆ์˜ ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ ์‚ฌ์—…, PGM ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ 1์–ต 6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„ ์ฐฝ์ถœ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ์˜ˆ์˜ ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ ์‚ฌ์—…, PGM ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ 1์–ต 6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„ ์ฐฝ์ถœ
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ์˜ˆ์˜ ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ ์‚ฌ์—…, PGM ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ 1์–ต 6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„ ์ฐฝ์ถœ
[SMM Flash] Sibanye-Stillwater์˜ ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ ์‚ฌ์—…์€ 2026๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ์— ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์™€ ํ™•๋Œ€๋œ ์ง€์—ญ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง์— ํž˜์ž…์–ด ๊ฒฌ์กฐํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ต๊ณผ ํ˜„๊ธˆ ์ฐฝ์ถœ์„ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋™ ์‚ฌ์—…๋ถ€๋Š” ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† 280๋งŒ ์˜จ์Šค๋ฅผ ์žฌํ™œ์šฉยทํŒ๋งคํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 142% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ ์ˆ˜์น˜๋กœ, 5E PGM 19๋งŒ 5,000์˜จ์Šค, ๊ธˆ 9๋งŒ 5,000์˜จ์Šค, ์€ 250๋งŒ ์˜จ์Šค๊ฐ€ ํฌํ•จ๋๋‹ค. ์กฐ์ • EBITDA๋Š” 1์–ต 300๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(17์–ต ๋žœ๋“œ)๋กœ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 11% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ์ธ์‹๋œ Section 45X ์„ธ์•ก๊ณต์ œ๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•˜๋ฉด 536% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ช…๋ชฉ ์ž‰์—ฌํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„์€ 1์–ต 6,400๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(27์–ต ๋žœ๋“œ)์˜€๊ณ , ์กฐ์ • EBITDA ํ˜„๊ธˆ ์ „ํ™˜์œจ์€ 63%๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์›๋ฃŒ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰๋„ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ๋Š˜์–ด ํŽœ์‹ค๋ฒ ์ด๋‹ˆ์•„ ์‚ฌ์—…์žฅ์˜ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰์€ 220๋งŒ ์˜จ์Šค๋กœ ๋‘ ๋ฐฐ ์ด์ƒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๊ณ , ๋…ธ์Šค์บ๋กค๋ผ์ด๋‚˜ ์ธ์ˆ˜ ์ž์‚ฐ์ด 50๋งŒ ์˜จ์Šค๋ฅผ ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋กœ ๊ธฐ์—ฌํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์‹ค์ ์€ 2์ฐจ PGM ๊ณต๊ธ‰์›์œผ๋กœ์„œ ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ์˜ ๊ธฐ์—ฌ๋„๊ฐ€ ์ปค์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋Š” ๋™์‹œ์—, Sibanye์— ์ž๋ณธ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์ด ์ ์€ ์ˆ˜์ต์›์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ ํ”Œ๋žซํผ์€ ๊ธˆ, ์€, ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋ฐฑ๊ธˆ, ํŒ”๋ผ๋“, ์ด๋ฆฌ๋“, ๋ฃจํ…Œ๋Š„์ด ํ•จ์œ ๋œ ์†Œ์žฌ๋ฅผ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๋‹ค๊ฐํ™”๋œ ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ํ๋ฆ„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋…ธ์ถœ์„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
20์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋…œ์˜ ๋‚จ์•„๊ณต PGM ์‚ฌ์—…, ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋งˆ์ง„ ๊ฐœ์„ ๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ํ˜„๊ธˆ ์ฐฝ์ถœ
20์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋…œ์˜ ๋‚จ์•„๊ณต PGM ์‚ฌ์—…, ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋งˆ์ง„ ๊ฐœ์„ ๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ํ˜„๊ธˆ ์ฐฝ์ถœ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋…œ์˜ ๋‚จ์•„๊ณต PGM ์‚ฌ์—…, ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋งˆ์ง„ ๊ฐœ์„ ๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ํ˜„๊ธˆ ์ฐฝ์ถœ
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋…œ์˜ ๋‚จ์•„๊ณต PGM ์‚ฌ์—…, ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋งˆ์ง„ ๊ฐœ์„ ๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ํ˜„๊ธˆ ์ฐฝ์ถœ
[SMM Flash] ์‹œ๋ฐ”๋…œ-์Šคํ‹ธ์›Œํ„ฐ์˜ ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด PGM ์‚ฌ์—… ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์€ 2026๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ์— PGM ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน, ์•ˆ์ •์ ์ธ ์ƒ์‚ฐ, ์ง€์†์ ์ธ ๋น„์šฉ ์ ˆ๊ฐ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์— ํž˜์ž…์–ด ๊ฒฌ์กฐํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ต๊ณผ ํ˜„๊ธˆ ํ๋ฆ„์„ ์ฐฝ์ถœํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ์‚ฌ์—… ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์€ 4E PGM 79๋งŒ ์˜จ์Šค๋ฅผ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•ด ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 2% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ ๊ฐ€์ด๋˜์Šค์—๋Š” ๋ถ€ํ•ฉํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์กฐ์ • EBITDA๋Š” ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 302% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ 192์–ต ๋ž€๋“œ๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์กฐ์ • EBITDA ๋งˆ์ง„์€ 45%์— ๋‹ฌํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ๋ช…๋ชฉ ์ž‰์—ฌ ํ˜„๊ธˆ ํ๋ฆ„ 104์–ต ๋ž€๋“œ๋ฅผ ์ฐฝ์ถœํ•ด ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ ํฐ ํญ์˜ ๊ฐœ์„ ์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋ƒˆ๋‹ค. AISC ๋งˆ์ง„์€ 44%์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ์ „์ธ ๋น„์šฉ์€ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 10% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ 4E ์˜จ์Šค๋‹น 26,252๋ž€๋“œ(4E ์˜จ์Šค๋‹น 1,600๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ)๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ, ์ด๋Š” ์•ฝ 10์–ต ๋ž€๋“œ์— ๋‹ฌํ•˜๋Š” ๋กœ์—ดํ‹ฐ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์ผ๋ถ€ ๋ฐ˜์˜๋œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋‹ค. ์‹œ๋ฐ”๋…œ๋Š” ๋ธŒ๋ผ์šดํ•„๋“œ ํˆฌ์ž๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜๋„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. 2026๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ์— 26์–ต ๋ž€๋“œ๊ฐ€ ํˆฌ์ž๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, K4 ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด 4E PGM ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์ด 24% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋œ๋‹ค. ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๋˜ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์กด ์ธํ”„๋ผ๋ฅผ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ง€์›ํ•˜๋Š” ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ˆ˜๋ช… ์—ฐ์žฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋ฅผ ์ถ”์ง„ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.
20์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „