SMM6 March 18: the outer disk metal market tumbled across the board yesterday, with Lun Copper falling to a two-month low on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve / FED expected to raise interest rates ahead of schedule, pushing the dollar higher and weakening demand for metals. Today's LME metal market is generally red. As of 09:30, Lun Copper and Lun Ni are up nearly 1%, Lun Al is up nearly 1.3%, Lun Pb and Lun Zn are up nearly 0.5%, Lunxi fell slightly, most domestic non-ferrous metals are green, international copper is down nearly 2.3%, Shanghai copper is down nearly 2%, Shanghai aluminum is down nearly 1.3%, Shanghai lead is down nearly 1.4%, Shanghai zinc is down nearly 3%, Shanghai nickel is up nearly 0.1%, and Shanghai tin is down nearly 0.8%.
In terms of copper, the dollar index jumped strongly, the NDRC continued to talk about controlling commodity prices, the dumping policy was carried out in an orderly manner, and copper prices continued to be suppressed. Spot, after the Dragon Boat Festival, the disk continued to decline, the spot market activity significantly increased. The buying force has maintained a positive attitude for several consecutive days in the downstream week, and market trading has remained active.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper continues to fall under pressure when the dollar index rises strongly
In terms of aluminum, Shanghai Aluminum is still restricted by macro, policy and fundamental factors. The short-term macro and policy aspects have a greater impact. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest rate lattice chart has triggered market expectations of an early rate increase, and the US index has risen sharply again, which may put pressure on the commodity market again. In addition, the recent dumping announcement, it is rumored in the market that the way of dumping will be less than expected, and we still need to wait for the official specific plan. In terms of fundamentals, current consumption.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the market expects a rise in interest rates ahead of time, and the US index is under pressure from a big rise in Shanghai and aluminum.
In terms of lead, overnight Shanghai lead weakens in the general falling atmosphere of metals inside and outside, short sellers enter the market, the lower 15100 yuan / ton first line support is OK, this week social inventory is expected to maintain accumulated storage, high inventory and cost continue to play the game, lead prices will continue to shock at 15000-15500 yuan / ton platform box, short-term attention to the effectiveness of Wanwu support. It is expected that the average price of SMM1# lead today.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] lead weakens again overnight, high inventory and cost support continue to play a fierce game.
In terms of zinc, the overnight outer disk downside is a strong drag on Shanghai zinc, and the domestic sell-off will timely carry out multiple batches, increase market supervision, increase demand and decrease, and pay attention to the selling details in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] overnight, Shanghai Zinc continues to be under pressure and pays close attention to the details of dumping and storage in the short term.
In terms of nickel, nickel fundamentals are hardly bearish, and this week's decline is more affected by macro factors. In the context of the withdrawal of funds from risk aversion and the weakening atmosphere of the non-ferrous sector as a whole, nickel prices have been adjusted back to the 60-day moving average. After the price fell, the industrial chain performed better. Nickel plate nickel bean spot trading is active, nickel sulfate and stainless steel prices are resistant to decline.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the spot market of nickel industry chain has some active fundamentals to support the trend of nickel price.
For the black system, the thread rose nearly 0.5%, the hot coil rose nearly 1.2%, the coking coal rose nearly 2.8%, the coke rose nearly 2.4%, the iron ore rose nearly 1.7%, and the stainless steel rose nearly 0.4%. On the whole, after the previous sharp rise and fall, hot rolling prices have basically entered the horizontal shock mode. On the one hand, the fundamentals of hot rolling are weaker, a number of new hot rolling production lines are planned to be put into production from June to August, the demand for superimposed cold rolling galvanizing is weak, and the follow-up steel mills may transfer the corresponding hot metal output to hot rolling, resulting in high overall supply pressure. On the demand side, with the advent of the off-season, procurement efforts in the automobile, machinery, home appliances and construction industries have weakened month-on-month.
[minutes of SMM Iron and Steel Morning meeting] Raw material quotations are basically stable and have a strong wait-and-see mood downstream.
The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 2.7%, international oil prices fell from multi-year highs on Thursday, and the dollar strengthened after the US Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve / FED) hinted that interest rates could be raised as soon as 2023. Concerns about oil demand resurfaced after a surge in the number of new cases in the UK, while supply concerns about the return of Iranian oil also weighed on the market.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 1.8%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 3.6%. Comex futures fell the biggest one-day drop of the year on Thursday, as the dollar strengthened after the Federal Reserve announced its hawkish monetary strategy. The dollar jumped Thursday, hitting a two-month high against a basket of currencies. The move comes a day after Fed officials surprised the market by hinting that they would raise interest rates earlier than expected and end the emergency bond-buying program.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
"Click to see more SMM metal prices.
[SMM Metal Morning reference] the US dollar continues to soar and the metal plummets across the board * the import profit and loss of recycled copper improves * the weekly survey of aluminum downstream
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